{"id":773,"date":"2024-07-05T14:01:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-05T06:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/?p=773"},"modified":"2024-07-05T14:01:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-05T06:01:00","slug":"ai%e9%a1%be%e6%8a%95%e9%ab%98%e7%ba%a7%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e4%b9%8b%e4%ba%94%ef%bc%9a%e5%85%8b%e8%8e%b1%e5%a4%ab-%e6%a0%bc%e5%85%b0%e6%9d%b0%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/05\/ai%e9%a1%be%e6%8a%95%e9%ab%98%e7%ba%a7%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e4%b9%8b%e4%ba%94%ef%bc%9a%e5%85%8b%e8%8e%b1%e5%a4%ab-%e6%a0%bc%e5%85%b0%e6%9d%b0%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b\/","title":{"rendered":"AI\u987e\u6295\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7b56\u7565\u4e4b\u4e94\uff1a\u514b\u83b1\u592b.\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\u9884\u6d4b\u6cd5\uff08\u5efa\u8bae\u6536\u85cf\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Clive_Granger_by_Olaf_Storbeck-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-776\" style=\"width:630px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<pre class=\"wp-block-verse\"><strong>\u5199\u5728\u524d\u9762\u7684\u8bdd\uff1a<\/strong>\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5c14\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\u514b\u83b1\u592b\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u6770\uff08Clive Granger\uff09\u5728 1969 \u5e74\u7387\u5148\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7528\u4e8e\u5047\u8bbe\u68c0\u9a8c\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5176\u65e8\u5728<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\u660e\u786e\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u80fd\u5426\u5bf9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/mark>\u4ed6\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u91cc\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u80fd\u591f\u501f\u52a9\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5148\u9a8c\u503c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u76f8\u5bf9\u6ede\u540e\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u52a0\u4ee5\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5728\u5176\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">50\u4f59\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728 AI \u987e\u6295\u7b56\u7565\u5f53\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u8fd0\u7528\u3002<\/mark><\/pre>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8bf8\u591a\u6709\u5173\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e2d\uff0c\u5747\u7740\u91cd\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u7ecf\u5206\u6790\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u4e24\u8005\uff08\u6216\u6570\u8005\uff09\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5b58\u5728\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u901a\u8fc7\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5256\u6790\u51fa\u6298\u6263\u4e0e\u9500\u552e\u91cf\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ec5\u8868\u660e\u4e8c\u8005\u5177\u6709\u76f8\u5173\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5c31\u6b64\u8ba4\u5b9a\u6298\u6263\u4e3a\u56e0\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u81f4\u4f7f\u9500\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u7b49\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u56de\u5f52\u5206\u6790\u91cc\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4ec5\u80fd\u591f\u8868\u660e\u4e0d\u540c\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u540c\u671f\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\u4ec5\u80fd\u5f97\u51fa\u540c\u4e00\u53d8\u91cf\u524d\u540e\u671f\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u683c\u5170\u6770\u901a\u8fc7\u8bba\u8bc1\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u68c0\u9a8c\u63ed\u793a\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u843d\u5dee\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u662f\u884c\u5f97\u901a\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u575a\u4fe1\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u53d1\u73b0\u5728\u6216\u8005\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5206\u6790<\/strong>\u4f9d\u636e\u4e24\u70b9\u539f\u5219\uff0c<strong>\u5176\u4e00<\/strong>\u4e3a\u56e0\u679c\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u7684\u5148\u540e\u6b21\u5e8f\uff0c\u5373\u56e0\u901a\u5e38\u5148\u4e8e\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\uff1b<strong>\u5176\u4e8c<\/strong>\u662f\u56e0\u5f53\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u5f71\u54cd\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u80fd\u591f\u81f4\u4f7f\u679c\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5206\u6790\u6240\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u5e76\u975e X \u662f\u5426\u81f4\u4f7f Y \uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6d4b\u8bd5 X \u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6d4b Y \u3002\u5f53\u5bf9\u53d8\u91cf X \u662f\u5426\u5bf9\u53d8\u91cf Y \u5b58\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\u65f6\uff0c\u53ea\u9700\u4f30\u91cf X \u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u503c\u662f\u5426\u5bf9 Y \u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u503c\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\u5373\u53ef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56fe\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217 X \u6a21\u5f0f\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u6ede\u540e\u4e8e X \u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217 Y \u6a21\u5f0f\u4e14\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u81f4\u91cd\u590d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba4\u4e3a X \u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u503c\u80fd\u591f\u7528\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b Y \u7684\u672a\u6765\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/\u5fae\u4fe1\u56fe\u7247_20240710125545-1024x470.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-779\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u68c0\u9a8c\u867d\u8bf4\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5f7c\u6b64\u5b58\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u56e0\u679c\u5e76\u975e\u771f\u6b63\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u56e0\u679c\uff0c\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u5b66\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u4f30\u91cf\u3002\u5f53\u81ea\u53d8\u91cf X \u4f5c\u4e3a\u56e0\u4ea7\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u65f6\uff0c\u56e0\u53d8\u91cf Y 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style=\"width:196px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e24\u7ec4\u6570\u636e\u5e76\u975e\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/640-1-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-785\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u5c06\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5dee\u5206\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u5982\u4e0b\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\u6570\u636e\u548c\u56fe\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/640-2-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-786\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u540e\u5c06\u76f8\u5173\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u653e\u5165SPSSAU\u8fdb\u884c\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/640-3-1-1024x460.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-787\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u7ec4\u6570\u636e\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u5148\u6709\u86cb\u800c\u6709\u9e21\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728\u539f\u5047\u8bbe\u4ea7\u86cb\u91cf\u4e0d\u662f\u9e21\u7fa4\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e2d\uff0cP\u503c\u4e3a0.013\uff0c\u5c0f\u4e8e0.05\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u62d2\u7edd\u539f\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u5907\u9009\u5047\u8bbe\u5373\u4ea7\u86cb\u91cf\u662f\u9e21\u7fa4\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u9e21\u7fa4\u4e0d\u662f\u4ea7\u86cb\u91cf\uff0c\u7531\u4e8eP\u503c0.268\u5927\u4e8e0.05\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u63a5\u53d7\u539f\u5047\u8bbe\u5373\u9e21\u7fa4\u4e0d\u662f\u4ea7\u86cb\u91cf\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0b\u56fe\u662f\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5206\u6790\u6cd5\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u8f93\u51fa\u3002<br>(a) 1860 \u5e74\u81f3 2011 \u5e74\u82f1\u56fd\u5e74\u5ea6\u5de5\u8d44\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\uff1b<br>(b) 1860 \u5e74\u81f3 2011 \u5e74\u82f1\u56fd\u5e74\u5ea6\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u5b58\u91cf\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\uff1b<br>(c) 1955 \u5e74\u81f3 2004 \u5e74\u82f1\u56fd\u5b63\u5ea6\u5b9e\u9645\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5bf9\u6570\uff1b<br>(d) \u83ab\u7eb3\u7f57\u4e9a\u706b\u5c71\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/3-Figure1-1-1-1024x616.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-791\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u79cd\u683c\u5170\u6770\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u6d41\u884c\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5b83\u4e5f\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u4e0d\u80fd\u771f\u6b63\u5730\u53d1\u73b0\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd8\u6709\u5b83\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u8fd8\u5b58\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6790\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u7eb3\u5165\u8fd9\u79cd\u5e72\u6270\u56e0\u7d20\u3002980\u5e74\u4ee3\u7531\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u8ba1\u91cf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u5206\u6790\u52a0\u4ee5\u4fee\u6539\u3001\u6269\u5145\uff0c\u5c06\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff09\u53d8\u91cf\u7eb3\u5165\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4f7f\u7528\u9762\u677f\u8d44\u6599\u7684\u5411\u91cf\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u82f1\u8bed\uff1apanel data VAR 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