{"id":610,"date":"2024-07-25T07:07:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-24T23:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/?p=610"},"modified":"2024-07-25T07:07:00","modified_gmt":"2024-07-24T23:07:00","slug":"%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%85%ac%e5%bc%80%e5%90%8e%e8%83%bd%e5%90%a6%e6%8c%81%e7%bb%ad%e7%9b%88%e5%88%a9%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/25\/%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e5%85%ac%e5%bc%80%e5%90%8e%e8%83%bd%e5%90%a6%e6%8c%81%e7%bb%ad%e7%9b%88%e5%88%a9%ef%bc%9f\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7b56\u7565\u516c\u5f00\u540e\u80fd\u5426\u6301\u7eed\u76c8\u5229\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/bot31\uff09.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-648\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<pre class=\"wp-block-verse\"><strong>\u5199\u5728\u524d\u9762\u7684\u8bdd\uff1a<\/strong>\u5f53\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u88ab\u516c\u5f00\u4e14\u5e7f\u6cdb\u6d41\u4f20\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u5fe7\u8651\u8fd9\u4e9b<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u906d\u5230\u5957\u5229\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u81f4\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u96be\u4ee5\u83b7\u53d6\u5229\u6da6\u3002<\/mark>\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u8bb8\u4f1a\u6709\u6240\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6765\u8bb2\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u516c\u5e03\u4e4b\u540e\u4f9d\u65e7\u80fd\u591f\u4fdd\u6301\u76c8\u5229\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u7b56\u7565\u53d8\u5f97\u5c3d\u4eba\u7686\u77e5\uff0c\u56de\u62a5\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5373\u523b\u524a\u51cf\uff1b<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728\u9887\u4e3a\u53ef\u89c2\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/mark><\/pre>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3e\u4f8b\u6765\u8bf4\uff0cMcLean \u548c Pontiff \u6240\u5f00\u5c55\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c<strong>\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\u7684\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u6837\u672c\u5916\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 26%\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u6709 58%\u7684\u7559\u5b58\u3002<\/strong>\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u6709\u6240\u77e5\u6653\uff0c\u5e76\u80fd\u591f\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u9519\u8bef\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u8fdb\uff0c\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u4f1a\u9010\u6b65\u663e\u73b0\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u5728\u4e94\u5e74\u8fc7\u540e\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u4f1a\u4fdd\u7559\u76f8\u5f53\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u5f02\u5e38\u5e38\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4f5c\u201c\u667a\u80fd\u8d1d\u5854\u7cfb\u6570\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4f9d\u65e7\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u591a\u5143\u5316\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u83b7\u53d6\u5229\u6da6\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cJensen\u3001Kelly \u548c Pedersen \u8fd1\u671f\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u590d\u5236\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7 80%\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u7968\u56e0\u5b50\u5373\u4fbf\u5728\u5bf9\u4e00\u81f4\u4e14\u66f4\u5177\u53ef\u5b9e\u65bd\u6027\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\u6784\u5efa\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u4f9d\u65e7\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4ecd\u7136\u4fdd\u7559\u7740\u539f\u59cb\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5728 93 \u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684 153 \u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u4e2d\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u56e0\u5b50\u7814\u7a76\u5177\u5907\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u975e\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image_mj.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-612\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u516c\u5f00\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u4f20\u64ad\u65f6\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5e38\u5e38\u62c5\u5fe7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u88ab\u5957\u5229\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u65e0\u6cd5\u83b7\u53d6\u5229\u6da6\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\u4f9d\u7136\u4fdd\u6301\u76c8\u5229\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0cHeiko Jacobs \u548c Sebastian M\u00fcller \u5728\u300a\u5168\u7403\u5f02\u5e38\uff1a\u4e00\u65e6\u516c\u5f00\uff0c\u4fbf\u4e0d\u590d\u5b58\u5728\uff1f\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u5bf9 39 \u4e2a\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d 231 \u4e2a\u622a\u9762\u5f02\u5e38\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\u957f\u671f\/\u77ed\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d1\u73b0\u4e3a\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u5b9e\u65bd\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u201c\u5bff\u547d\u201d\u548c\u7b56\u7565\/\u5f02\u5e38\u201c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5bff\u547d\u201d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5b9d\u8d35\u7684\u89c1\u89e3\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u7531 Falck\u3001Rej \u548c Thesmar\uff082021\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u4e8b\u524d\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u5df2\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u5f02\u5e38\u5728\u6837\u672c\u5916\u8868\u73b0\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7ee9\u6548\uff08\u6837\u672c\u5916\u88ab\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\u65f6\u671f\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6700\u7ec8\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\uff0c\u65b0\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u590f\u666e\u8870\u51cf\u589e\u52a0\u7ea6 5%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e24\u7ec4\u6570\u636e\u5c55\u5f00\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e0e\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6240\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u56de\u6d4b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u9a8c\u8bc1\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u9887\u5177\u8da3\u5473\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e Mebane Faber \u7684\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u6218\u672f\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u300b\uff0c\u9009\u53d6\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\u6761\u76ee\u2014\u2014\u6c38\u7eed\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\u8d8b\u52bf\u8ddf\u8e2a\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u56de\u6d4b\u671f\u672b\u70b9\u662f\u4ece\u8bba\u6587\u96c6\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e2d\u622a\u53d6\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u65f6\u6bb5\uff0c\u4ee5\u7eff\u8272\u7a81\u51fa\u663e\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/640.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-613\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\u65f6\uff082023 \u5e74 5 \u6708\u521d\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6240\u6709 868 \u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u4e2d\u7684 671 \u4e2a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5185\u90e8\u56de\u6d4b\u3002\u5176\u4e2d 417 \u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u6bcf\u6708\u8fdb\u884c\u7ef4\u62a4\u548c\u66f4\u65b0\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u88ab\u5305\u542b\u5728\u5206\u6790\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c62 \u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u5728\u5916\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u6570\u636e\u80fd\u591f\u56de\u6eaf\u5230\u8bba\u6587\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff08\u5373\u4ece\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6837\u672c\u7ed3\u675f\u65e5\u671f\u4e4b\u540e\u5f00\u59cb\u56de\u6eaf\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff09\u3002\u6570\u636e\u9884\u5904\u7406\u90e8\u5206\u81f3\u6b64\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u5269\u4e0b 355 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QP \u5230\u6e90\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u56de\u6d4b\u671f\u7ed3\u675f\u7684 StartDate\uff09\uff0c\u6837\u672c\u5916\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff08\u4ece\u6e90\u8bba\u6587\u5230 QP \u56de\u6d4b\u7ed3\u675f\u7684\u56de\u6d4b\u671f\u7ed3\u675f\uff1b\u5018\u82e5\u4e3a\u6570\u636e\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u91cd\u590d\u548c\u66f4\u65b0\u4ee3\u7801\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u59cb\u7ec8\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u8c03\u6574\u81f3\u5f53\u6708\uff09\uff1b\u6211\u4eec\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86 CAR p.a.\u548c Volatility 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class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/123.60.176.65\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/640-4.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-617\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u89c2\u5bdf\u56fe\u8868\u65f6\uff0cX \u8f74\u8868\u793a\u6837\u672c\u5185\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5468\u671f\uff08\u4ece -5 \u5230 0\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d 0 \u5e74\u662f\u9608\u503c\u5e74\uff0c0 \u5230 5 \u5e74\u8868\u793a\u6837\u672c\u5916\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002Y \u8f74\u8868\u793a\u5728\u524d\u9762\u6240\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5185\u5347\u503c\u4e86 1 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u6240\u6709\u7b56\u7565\u5728\u7b2c 0 \u5e74\u90fd\u4ece 1 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