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\u4f5c \u8005\uff1a\u8001\u4f59\u635e\u9c7c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u539f\u521b\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf7\u6807\u660e\u51fa\u5904\u53ca\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

\u6280\u672f\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u64cd\u4f5c\u5efa\u8bae\u3002
\u6a21\u578b\u8bc4\u6d4b\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\u3002
\u4e0d\u8350\u80a1\u3001\u4e0d\u5356\u8bfe\u3001\u4e0d\u627f\u8bfa\u6536\u76ca\u3002
\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8bf7\u5408\u6cd5\u5408\u89c4\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u672c\u6587 2650 \u5b57 | \u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb 6 \u5206\u949f\uff0c\u540e\u67093\u6bb5\u4ee3\u7801\u548c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u5148\u6536\u85cf<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u7528\u4eca\u5929\u8981\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u628a\u5fae\u8f6f\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u8dd1\u5b8c\u540e\uff0c\u5c4f\u5e55\u4e0a\u5e76\u6392\u8df3\u51fa\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e00\u6a21\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u6570\u5b57\uff1a28.1%\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u6a21\u578b\u8bf4\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u5f8c\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u5b83\u62a5\u51fa\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u56de\u7b54\u201c\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u4e8f\u94b1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6709\u591a\u5927\u201d\uff0c\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u56de\u7b54\u201c\u80a1\u4ef7\u5e73\u65f6\u6709\u591a\u98a0\u201d\u3002\u6211\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a 28.1% \u65f6\uff0c\u624b\u5728\u952e\u76d8\u4e0a\u505c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002\u76f4\u89c9\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\uff1a\u574f\u4e86\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u628a\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u76f4\u63a5\u586b\u8fdb\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387\u90a3\u4e00\u680f\u4e86\uff1f\u540e\u6765\u516c\u5f0f\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76f4\u89c9\u3002\u4f46\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u91cd\u5408\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u77ac\u95f4\uff0c\u6211\u8bb0\u4f4f\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u771f\u6b63\u7ba1\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u6b63\u6001\u5206\u5e03\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee3\u8fdb\u53bb\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u662f 27.59%\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u90a3\u4e24\u4e2a 28.1% \u53ea\u662f\u5de7\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u5957\u4e1c\u897f\u6211\u662f\u771f\u8dd1\u5b8c\u4e86\uff1a\u6570\u636e\u81ea\u5df1\u62c9\uff0c\u4ee3\u7801\u81ea\u5df1\u5199\uff0c1000\u6761\u8def\u5f84\u3001252\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u73af\u8282\u90fd\u6ca1\u7701\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u3001\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u5230\u5e95\u5728\u7b97\u4ec0\u4e48<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5b83\u4e00\u5171\u53ea\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u96f6\u4ef6\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u589e\u957f\u7387<\/strong>\uff0c\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u7559\u5b58\u7387\u4e58\u4ee5ROIC\u3002\u7559\u5b58\u7387\u662f\u8d5a\u7684\u94b1\u91cc\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u7559\u4e0b\u6765\u7ee7\u7eed\u6295\uff0cROIC\u662f\u6295\u8fdb\u53bb\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u5757\u94b1\u80fd\u8d5a\u56de\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u76f8\u4e58\uff0c\u5927\u81f4\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u80fd\u957f\u591a\u5feb\u3002\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u7559\u5b58\u7387\u662f79.72%\uff0cROIC\u662f25.92%\uff0c\u76f8\u4e58\u5f9720.67%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u96f6\u4ef6\u662f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387<\/strong>\uff0c\u62ff\u6700\u8fd15\u5e741255\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u7684\u65e5\u5bf9\u6570\u6536\u76ca\u505a\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\uff0c\u5e74\u5316\u4e4b\u540e\u662f28.10%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u96f6\u4ef6\u662f\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/strong>\u3002\u80a1\u4ef7\u8d70\u7684\u662f\u51e0\u4f55\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\uff0c\u5199\u51fa\u6765\u662f dS\/S = g\u00b7dt + \u03c3\u00b7dW\uff0cg\u662f\u521a\u624d\u90a3\u4e2a\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u03c3\u662f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u516c\u5f0f\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u7b97\u6700\u7ec8\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u5b83\u505a\u7684\u662f\u628a\u4e00\u5e74\u5207\u6210252\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u5f80\u524d\u632a\u4e00\u5c0f\u6b65\uff0c\u632a\u6ee1252\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u632a\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b65\u7528\u7684\u662fEuler-Maruyama\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u628a\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e00\u6b65\u6b65\u79bb\u6563\u5316\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u3002\u6362\u4e2a\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u63b7\u4e00\u6b21\u9ab0\u5b50\uff0c\u628a\u63b7\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6570\u52a0\u5230\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u7528\u95ed\u5f0f\u89e3\u7b97\u7ec8\u503c\uff1f\u56e0\u4e3a\u95ed\u5f0f\u89e3\u53ea\u80fd\u7ed9\u4f60\u6700\u540e\u90a3\u4e2a\u6570\uff0c\u4e2d\u95f4\u600e\u4e48\u8d70\u7684\u4e00\u6982\u6ca1\u6709\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2d\u95f4\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u624d\u6700\u6709\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u8def\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u56de\u64a4\u591a\u5c11\u3001\u534a\u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u90fd\u8bb0\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7b2c\u56db\u4e2a\u5176\u5b9e\u4e0d\u7b97\u96f6\u4ef6\uff0c\u662f\u4e2a\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u8dd11000\u6761\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u770b\u7ec8\u503c\u843d\u5728\u54ea\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
1000\u6761\u968f\u673a\u8def\u5f84\u6247\u5f62\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4f4d\u8def\u5f84<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u56fe\u4e0a\u753b\u4e8660\u6761\u968f\u673a\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u6de1\u8272\u662f\u5404\u81ea\u8d70\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\uff0c\u6df1\u8272\u90a3\u6761\u662f\u4e2d\u4f4d\u8def\u5f84\u3002\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d77\u70b9\uff0c\u80fd\u8d70\u51fa\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\u5dee\u522b\u5f88\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
1000\u6761\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u7ec8\u503c\u5206\u5e03<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u628a1000\u6761\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u7ec8\u70b9\u53e0\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u5f20\u5206\u5e03\u56fe\u3002\u8d77\u70b9524.51\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5747\u503c645.11\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u843d\u5728618.32\u7f8e\u5143\u30025%\u5206\u4f4d389.61\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c95%\u5206\u4f4d989.97\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u624b\u4e0a\u653e\u4e00\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u662f11788.51\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u589e\u957f\u53e3\u5f84\u5dee4\u4e2a\u70b9\uff0c\u7ed3\u8bba\u5c31\u53d8\u4e86<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e2a\u6211\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u8e29\u7684\u5751\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u7b97\u51fag\u662f24.58%\uff0c\u8ddf\u90a3\u4e2a20.7%\u5dee\u4e864\u4e2a\u70b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e3a\u662f\u54ea\u91cc\u53d6\u6570\u9519\u4e86\u3002\u67e5\u4e86\u4e24\u5929\u624d\u53d1\u73b0\u662f\u53e3\u5f84\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ROIC\u7684\u5206\u6bcd\u53eb\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u7b97\u7684\u662f\u80a1\u4e1c\u6743\u76ca\u52a0\u4e0a\u6709\u606f\u8d1f\u503a\u3002\u4e89\u8bae\u5728\u8fd9\u513f\uff0c\u73b0\u91d1\u8981\u4e0d\u8981\u6263\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6263\u6389\u73b0\u91d1\u548c\u77ed\u671f\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u7684\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u672c\u662f4058.4\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0cROIC\u7b97\u51fa\u676530.83%\uff0cg\u5c31\u662f24.58%\u3002\u4e0d\u6263\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u672c4826.8\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0cROIC\u964d\u523025.92%\uff0cg\u662f20.67%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7528\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u6263\u73b0\u91d1\u90a3\u7248\uff0c\u6211\u786e\u8ba4\u8fc7\uff0c20.67%\u548c20.7%\u80fd\u5bf9\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u516d\u79cd\u6f02\u79fb\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0b\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u540e\u679c\u5c31\u5728\u8fd9\u5f20\u56fe\u91cc\u3002\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u9501\u6b7b\u572828.10%\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0c\u5149\u6362\u6f02\u79fb\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u5dee\u5f88\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6f02\u79fb\u5047\u8bbe<\/th>g<\/th>\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570<\/th>\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387<\/th><\/tr>
\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u589e\u957f\uff08\u4e0d\u6263\u73b0\u91d1\uff09<\/td>20.67%<\/td>618.32<\/td>27.30%<\/td><\/tr>
\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u589e\u957f\uff08\u6263\u73b0\u91d1+\u77ed\u6295\uff09<\/td>24.58%<\/td>642.99<\/td>23.10%<\/td><\/tr>
\u8fd110\u5e74\u5b9e\u9645\u51e0\u4f55\u5e74\u5316<\/td>24.11%<\/td>639.96<\/td>23.60%<\/td><\/tr>
\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u589e\u957f\u6253\u5bf9\u6298<\/td>10.33%<\/td>557.62<\/td>41.90%<\/td><\/tr>
\u96f6\u6f02\u79fb<\/td>0%<\/td>502.87<\/td>55.50%<\/td><\/tr>
\u589e\u957f\u51cf\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387<\/td>-7.43%<\/td>466.86<\/td>67.10%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6f02\u79fb\u6362\u4e86\u4e2a\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387\u4ece27.3%\u4e00\u8def\u8dd1\u523067.1%\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6f02\u79fb\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u4e00\u73af\uff0c\u5b83\u9760\u7684\u662f\u67d0\u4e00\u5929\u8d22\u62a5\u91cc\u7684\u90a3\u51e0\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u589e\u957f\u6253\u5bf9\u6298\u8fd9\u4e00\u6863\uff0c\u6211\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u89c9\u5f97\u662f\u5728\u5201\u96be\u4eba\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u53d1\u73b0\u5b83\u6700\u6709\u9053\u7406\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6c38\u8fdc\u4ee520%\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u901f\u5ea6\u6491\u4e0d\u4e86\u51e0\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e09\u3001\u62ff\u771f\u5b9e\u5386\u53f2\u6821\u51c6\u4e00\u904d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u6a21\u578b\u518d\u6f02\u4eae\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f97\u8ddf\u73b0\u5b9e\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002\u6211\u62ff\u5fae\u8f6f\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e744932\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\uff0c\u5207\u51fa\u5168\u90e84680\u4e2a\u91cd\u53e0\u7684252\u65e5\u7a97\u53e3\u3002\u770b\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u5230\u5e95\u957f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u771f\u5b9e\u5386\u53f2\u9010\u9879\u5bf9\u7167<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\u6307\u6807<\/th>20\u5e74\u771f\u5b9e\u5386\u53f2<\/th>\u6a21\u578b\u8f93\u51fa<\/th>\u5dee\u503c<\/th><\/tr>
\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570<\/td>19.50%<\/td>17.89%<\/td>+1.62 \u4e2a\u70b9<\/td><\/tr>
5% \u5206\u4f4d<\/td>-22.61%<\/td>-25.72%<\/td>+3.11 \u4e2a\u70b9<\/td><\/tr>
95% \u5206\u4f4d<\/td>55.22%<\/td>88.74%<\/td>-33.52 \u4e2a\u70b9<\/td><\/tr>
\u4e8f\u635f\u5360\u6bd4<\/td>23.97%<\/td>27.30%<\/td>-3.33 \u4e2a\u70b9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387\u8fd9\u680f\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u8bf427.30%\uff0c\u771f\u5b9e\u662f23.97%\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u504f\u60b2\u89c23.33\u4e2a\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5dee\u8ddd\u6211\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

95%\u5206\u4f4d\u90a3\u680f\u5dee\u5f97\u8fdc\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u8bf4\u6700\u597d\u80fd\u6da888.74%\uff0c\u771f\u5b9e\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u624d55.22%\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a\u51e0\u4f55\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u5bf9\u53f3\u5c3e\u662f\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u9ad8\u4f30\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u5047\u8bbe\u6da8\u8dcc\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u5de6\u53f3\u5bf9\u79f0\uff0c\u53ef\u771f\u5b9e\u80a1\u7968\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u3002\u725b\u5e02\u90a3\u51e0\u5e74\u80fd\u628a\u53f3\u5c3e\u62c9\u5f97\u5f88\u957f\uff0c\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u62c9\u4e0d\u51fa\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56db\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u6700\u75bc\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5148\u770b\u597d\u7684\u4e00\u9762\u3002\u6a21\u62df\u91cc1000\u6761\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u5e74\u5185\u6700\u5927\u56de\u64a4\uff0c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u662f-21.68%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u770b\u7740\u633a\u6e29\u548c\u3002\u53ef\u771f\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u8fd110\u5e74\u6700\u6df1\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u56de\u64a4\u662f-37.56%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6570\u8f68\u8ff9\u4e0e\u56de\u64a4\u4f4e\u4f30<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u4e2d\u95f4\u90a3\u6839\u662f\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4d\u56de\u64a4\u3002\u53f3\u8fb9\u90a3\u6839\u662f\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u4e00\u6761\u8def\u5f84\uff0c\u5e74\u5185\u56de\u64a4-52.08%\u3002\u5de6\u8fb9\u90a3\u6839\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u5386\u53f2\uff0c-37.56%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5dee\u4e8615.9\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u7cbe\u5ea6\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u662f\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u6211\u53cd\u590d\u6838\u4e86\u4e24\u904d\uff0c\u6015\u662f\u56de\u64a4\u7a97\u53e3\u53d6\u9519\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u4e8e\u51e0\u4f55\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u5047\u8bbe\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b65\u90fd\u4e92\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6da8\u4e00\u6b65\u8dcc\u4e00\u6b65\u5404\u7b97\u5404\u7684\u3002\u771f\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u56de\u64a4\u662f\u8fde\u7740\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u6050\u614c\u4f1a\u8fde\u7740\u6050\u614c\u3002\u771f\u9047\u4e0a2008\u5e74\u6216\u80052020\u5e743\u6708\u90a3\u79cd\u884c\u60c5\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u7ed9\u4f60\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u6839\u672c\u6551\u4e0d\u4e86\u4f60\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u8fd8\u6d4b\u4e86\u53e6\u4e24\u4e2a\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u4e00\u662f\u6362\u968f\u673a\u79cd\u5b50\uff0c\u75285\u4e2a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u79cd\u5b50\u5404\u8dd1\u4e00\u904d\u30025%\u5206\u4f4d\u5728384.53\u5230392.78\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u95f4\u8df3\uff0c\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387\u572825.70%\u523028.60%\u4e4b\u95f4\u8df3\u3002\u62a5\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a28.1%\uff0c\u843d\u5728\u533a\u95f4\u7684\u504f\u4e0a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e8c\u662f\u6362\u8def\u5f84\u6570\u91cf\uff0c100\u6761\u65f65%\u5206\u4f4d\u662f373.31\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c20000\u6761\u662f390.67\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6837\u672c\u5c11\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5c3e\u90e8\u90a3\u51e0\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u5c31\u98d8\u3002\u75281000\u6761\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u91cf\u52c9\u5f3a\u591f\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u5b83\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u98d8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e94\u3001\u771f\u6b63\u51b3\u5b9a\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u500d\u6570<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u6a21\u578b\u91cc\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u63d0\u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6570\u3002\u6211\u6838\u5bf9\u6570\u636e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u628a\u6574\u4e2a\u6d41\u7a0b\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\uff0c\u624d\u786e\u8ba4\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u6f0f\u5199\uff0c\u662f\u771f\u7684\u6ca1\u505a\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7f3a\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u80a1\u4ef7\u6da8\u5e45\u53ef\u4ee5\u62c6\u6210\u4e24\u622a\uff0c\u4e00\u622a\u662f\u76c8\u5229\u6da8\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u622a\u662f\u500d\u6570\u53d8\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u5fae\u8f6f18\u5e74\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u636e\u91cc\uff0cEPS\u5e74\u5316\u6da813.39%\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u5e74\u5316\u6da815.59%\u3002\u5269\u4e0b\u76841.94%\u6765\u81ea\u500d\u6570\u4ece14.7\u500d\u53d8\u621020.8\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u500d\u6570\u8fd91.94%\u7684\u5e74\u5316\uff0c\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u91cc\u662f\u96f6\u3002\u800c\u5b83\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u8d1f\u7684\u3002\u6211\u628a\u500d\u6570\u6f02\u79fb\u52a0\u8fdb\u6a21\u578b\u518d\u8dd1\u4e00\u904d\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
\u4f30\u503c\u500d\u6570\u53d8\u52a8\u60c5\u666f<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\u500d\u6570\u6bcf\u5e74\u53d8\u52a8<\/th>\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570<\/th>\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387<\/th><\/tr>
-10%<\/td>559.48<\/td>41.00%<\/td><\/tr>
-5%<\/td>588.16<\/td>34.50%<\/td><\/tr>
0<\/td>618.32<\/td>27.30%<\/td><\/tr>
+5%<\/td>650.02<\/td>21.10%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u500d\u6570\u6bcf\u5e74\u538b\u7f295%\uff0c\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387\u4ece27.3%\u8df3\u523034.5%\uff0c\u6bd4\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u589e\u957f\u6253\u5bf9\u6298\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8fd8\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u768427%\u6982\u7387\u4e8f\u635f<\/strong>\uff0c\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u613f\u610f\u7ee7\u7eed\u6309\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u7ed9\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u524d\u63d0\u5f88\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u6bd4\u516c\u53f8\u80fd\u7ef4\u630120%\u589e\u957f<\/strong>\u8fd8\u8106\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u516d\u3001\u540c\u4e00\u5957\u4ee3\u7801\u6362\u5230A\u80a1<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6bd5\u7adf\u9694\u7740\u4e00\u5c42\u3002\u6211\u628a\u8fd9\u5957\u4ee3\u7801\u642c\u5230A\u80a1\u8dd1\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u3002\u6807\u7684\u9009\u4e86\u8d35\u5dde\u8305\u53f0\u3001\u5b81\u5fb7\u65f6\u4ee3\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5efa\u7b51\u3002\u8d22\u52a1\u53e3\u5f84\u7528TTM\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u8fd112\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u6570\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u5b63\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A\u80a1\u4e09\u53ea\u6807\u7684\u5bf9\u7167<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\u6807\u7684<\/th>ROIC<\/th>g<\/th>\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387<\/th>\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387<\/th>\u6a21\u62df\u56de\u64a4\u4e2d\u4f4d<\/th>\u771f\u5b9e\u8fd15\u5e74\u6700\u5927\u56de\u64a4<\/th><\/tr>
\u8d35\u5dde\u8305\u53f0<\/td>42.66%<\/td>8.62%<\/td>24.55%<\/td>41.80%<\/td>-21.55%<\/td>-38.38%<\/td><\/tr>
\u5b81\u5fb7\u65f6\u4ee3<\/td>59.72%<\/td>48.05%<\/td>41.15%<\/td>15.90%<\/td>-27.44%<\/td>-62.88%<\/td><\/tr>
\u4e2d\u56fd\u5efa\u7b51<\/td>4.09%<\/td>2.64%<\/td>25.36%<\/td>51.20%<\/td>-23.95%<\/td>-32.07%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u5b81\u5fb7\u65f6\u4ee3\u8fd9\u4e00\u884c\u6700\u53cd\u76f4\u89c9\u3002g\u9ad8\u8fbe48.05%\uff0c\u662f\u4e09\u53ea\u91cc\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u3002\u53ef\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387\u53ea\u670915.90%\uff0c\u5168\u573a\u6700\u4f4e\u3002\u6211\u76ef\u7740\u8fd9\u4e00\u884c\u770b\u4e86\u4e24\u904d\uff0c\u786e\u8ba4\u4e0d\u662f\u811a\u672c\u6392\u9519\u4e86\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u5efa\u7b51g\u53ea\u67092.64%\uff0c\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u738751.20%\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u90a3\u4e00\u5217\u3002\u5b81\u5fb7\u65f6\u4ee341.15%\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u8db3\u4ee5\u5403\u6389\u5b83\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5efa\u7b5125.36%\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u914d2.64%\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u5b89\u5168\u57ab\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u6700\u503c\u5f97\u5e26\u8d70\u7684\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u589e\u957f\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u4f60\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u62ff\u5230\u90a3\u4e2a\u4e0a\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56de\u64a4\u90a3\u4e00\u680f\u8fd8\u662f\u8001\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e09\u53ea\u90fd\u662f\u6a21\u62df\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u6e29\u548c\u3002\u5b81\u5fb7\u65f6\u4ee3\u6a21\u62df-27.44%\uff0c\u771f\u5b9e\u8dcc\u8fc7-62.88%\uff0c\u5dee\u4e86\u4e00\u500d\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e03\u3001\u52a8\u624b\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u4ee3\u7801<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u6a21\u578b\u672c\u8eab\u5f88\u77ed\uff0c\u56db\u5341\u6765\u884c\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u662f\u6211\u7528\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5148\u7b97\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u6bb5\u7528\u6263\u73b0\u91d1\u7684\u53e3\u5f84\uff0c\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u662f24.58%\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u7b2c\u4e09\u8282\u8868\u683c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u884c\u3002\u60f3\u590d\u73b0\u4e3b\u53e3\u5f84\u90a320.67%\uff0c\u628a invested_capital \u91cc\u7684 cash_and_sti \u53bb\u6389\u5c31\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

nopat = operating_income * (1 - tax_rate)\ninvested_capital = equity + debt - cash_and_sti\nroic = nopat \/ invested_capital\nretention = 1 - dividends_per_share \/ eps\ng = retention * roic<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n
\u518d\u7b97\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8dd1\u8def\u5f84\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
import pandas as pd\n\nwindow = prices.tail(1255)          # prices \u662f pandas Series\ndaily_log = np.log(window).diff().dropna()\nsigma = daily_log.std(ddof=1) * np.sqrt(252)\n\ndt = 1.0 \/ 252\ndrift = (g - 0.5 * sigma ** 2) * dt\ndiffusion = sigma * np.sqrt(dt)\nz = np.random.default_rng(42).standard_normal((1000, 252))\npaths = price * np.exp(np.cumsum(drift + diffusion * z, axis=1))<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n
\u7b97\u8def\u5f84\u4e0a\u7684\u6700\u5927\u56de\u64a4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
running_max = np.maximum.accumulate(paths, axis=1)\ndrawdown = paths \/ running_max - 1.0\nmax_dd = drawdown.min(axis=1)<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n
\u516b\u3001\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6cd5\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u7528<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u8bf4\u8bf4\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5b83\u9002\u5408\u5e72\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u628a\u660e\u5e74\u4f1a\u600e\u6837<\/strong>\u8fd9\u79cd\u6ca1\u5934\u6ca1\u8111\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6362\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u5f62\u72b6\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u770b\u523027%\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u5927\u6982\u5728400\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u5728990\u7f8e\u5143\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u5728620\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4fe1\u606f\u6bd4\u300c\u5927\u6982\u7387\u4f1a\u6da8\u300d\u6709\u7528\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5b83\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u5e72\u7684\u662f\u62ff\u5b83\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ed3\u4f4d\u3002\u5149\u662f\u56de\u64a4\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f3016\u4e2a\u70b9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6761\uff0c\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u4e00\u4e2a\u9760\u5b83\u505a\u98ce\u63a7\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u5371\u673a\u91cc\u88ab\u6253\u7a7f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u7ed3\u5c3e<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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\u4f60\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u91cc\uff0c\u90a327%\u7684\u4e8f\u635f\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u662f\u6309\u4ec0\u4e48\u53e3\u5f84\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– SEC EDGAR XBRL companyfacts, Microsoft Corporation (CIK 0000789019)\uff0c\u63a5\u53e3 https:\/\/data.sec.gov\/api\/xbrl\/companyfacts\/CIK0000789019.json – akshare stock_us_daily\uff0c\u65b0\u6d6a\u8d22\u7ecf\u7f8e\u80a1\u65e5\u7ebf\u63a5\u53e3 – Lo, S.-Y. (2001), Euler-Maruyama Method, Scholarpedia<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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#\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u6a21\u62df<\/a> #EulerMaruyama<\/a> #\u91cf\u5316\u6a21\u578b<\/a> #ROIC<\/a> #\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u7387<\/a> #\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b<\/a> #\u7f8e\u80a1<\/a> #A\u80a1\u91cf\u5316<\/a> #\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30<\/a> #\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b<\/a> #\u91cf\u5316\u5f00\u53d1<\/a> #\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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Continue reading\u7ed9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9760\u6a21\u62df\u5206\u5e03\u505a\u4ed3\u4f4d\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u4eba\uff1a\u56db\u6b65\u8dd1\u901a\u8499\u7279\u5361\u6d1b\u4f30\u503c<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[17,4,5,6],"class_list":["post-5161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aiinvest","tag-ai","tag-6","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5161"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5161\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5170,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5161\/revisions\/5170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}