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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6280\u672f\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u64cd\u4f5c\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<br>\u6a21\u578b\u8bc4\u6d4b\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<br>\u4e0d\u8350\u80a1\u3001\u4e0d\u5356\u8bfe\u3001\u4e0d\u627f\u8bfa\u6536\u76ca\u3002<br>\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8bf7\u5408\u6cd5\u5408\u89c4\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u672c\u6587\u7ea6 3200 \u5b57 | \u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb 10 \u5206\u949f\uff0c\u540e\u6709\u5b8c\u6574\u4ee3\u7801\u548c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u5148\u6536\u85cf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u7528\u7eaf\u968f\u673a\u6570\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\uff1a360\u4e2a\u6708\u5ea6\u8fdc\u671f\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6708\u5404\u81ea\u8df3\u52a8\uff0c\u8c01\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u8c01\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4fe1\u606f\u88ab\u5f7b\u5e95\u62ff\u6389\u3002\u5bf9\u5b83\u505a\u540c\u6837\u7684\u4e3b\u6210\u5206\u5206\u89e3\uff0c\u524d\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u89e3\u91ca\u4e8692.5%\u3002\u5f62\u72b6\u4e5f\u4e00\u6a21\u4e00\u6837\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u671f\u9650\u540c\u53f7\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a7f\u96f6\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a7f\u96f6\u4e24\u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u90a3\u5728\u771f\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1985\u5e7411\u6708\u52302026\u5e7410\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u96f6\u606f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf10,208\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\uff0c\u6bcf\u65e5\u53d8\u52a8\u62c6\u6210\u4e3b\u6210\u5206\uff0c\u524d\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u89e3\u91ca97.8%\u3002\u6539\u7528\u4e00\u5e74\u671f\u6eda\u52a8\u7a97\u53e3\uff0c9,957\u4e2a\u7a97\u53e3\u91cc\u6700\u5dee\u4e5f\u670995.7%\u3002\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u8054\u50a82003\u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u5c01\u4fe1\u8bf4\u5f97\u66f4\u6ee1\uff1a\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u80fd\u6293\u4f4f\u5404\u79cd\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8d85\u8fc799%\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u659c\u7387\u3001\u66f2\u7387\u3002\u9ad8\u76db1991\u5e74\u90a3\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u7ed9\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u8d77\u4e86\u540d\u5b57\uff0c\u4e09\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u540e\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u5229\u7387\u4ea4\u6613\u53f0\u8fd8\u5728\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u7167\u7740\u516c\u5f00\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u628a\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u548c\u90a3\u4e2a\u566a\u58f0\u5b9e\u9a8c\u90fd\u91cd\u8dd1\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u3002\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u770b\u523097.8%\uff0c\u6211\u771f\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u91cc\u5b58\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u6781\u6df1\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff1b\u540e\u6765\u624d\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u4e00\u591a\u534a\u662f\u7b97\u672f\u767d\u9001\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u8bb2\u6211\u8dd1\u51fa\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\u4f1a\u9a97\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e00\u30013\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u54ea\u4e09\u4e2a&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1986\u5e74\uff0c\u9ad8\u76db\u628aRobert Litterman\u4ece\u660e\u5c3c\u963f\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8bf7\u5230\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u3002\u4ed6\u4e00\u53bb\u5c31\u7ba1\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u56de\u5fc6\u8bf4\uff0c\u90a3\u65f6\u5019\u6211\u4eec\u65e2\u6ca1\u6709\u7f51\u7edc\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u7b97\u529b\uff0c\u628a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4ed3\u4f4d\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\u90fd\u529e\u4e0d\u5230\u3002\u8ddf\u4ed6\u540c\u5728Financial Strategies Group\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Jos\u00e9 Scheinkman\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u95ee\u9898\u5f88\u76f4\u63a5\u3002\u4e00\u6574\u4e2a\u503a\u5238\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6700\u5c11\u80fd\u7528\u51e0\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4ee3\u8868\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ed6\u4eec1991\u5e74\u4ea4\u51fa\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u53eb\u300aCommon Factors Affecting Bond Returns\u300b\u3002\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u7684\u53d8\u52a8\u80fd\u5206\u89e3\u6210\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u53eb\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u671f\u9650\u540c\u5411\u52a8\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u53eb\u659c\u7387\uff0c\u77ed\u7aef\u548c\u957f\u7aef\u53cd\u5411\u52a8\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u53eb\u66f2\u7387\uff0c\u4e2d\u95f4\u548c\u4e24\u5934\u53cd\u5411\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u628a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u6570\u636e\u6309\u4e5d\u4e2a\u671f\u9650\u91cd\u7b97\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\uff0c1\u5e74\u30012\u5e74\u30013\u5e74\u30015\u5e74\u30017\u5e74\u300110\u5e74\u300115\u5e74\u300120\u5e74\u300130\u5e74\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u671f\u9650\u5728\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u91cc\u7684\u6743\u91cd\uff0c\u4e00\u683c\u4e00\u683c\u5bf9\u5f97\u4e0a\u3002\u6c34\u5e73\u56e0\u5b50\u5168\u4e3a\u6b63\uff0c1\u5e740.223\uff0c7\u5e74\u6700\u9ad80.381\u3002\u659c\u7387\u56e0\u5b50\u77ed\u7aef-0.419\uff0c\u7a7f\u96f6\u523030\u5e74\u7684+0.478\u3002\u66f2\u7387\u56e0\u5b50\u6700\u6b6a\uff0c1\u5e74+0.243\uff0c5\u5e74-0.045\uff0c30\u5e74+0.805\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"707\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5158\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit1.png 700w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit1-297x300.png 297w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u6c34\u5e73\u5168\u540c\u53f7\u3001\u659c\u7387\u7a7f\u96f6\u4e00\u6b21\u3001\u66f2\u7387\u7a7f\u96f6\u4e24\u6b21<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5360\u6bd4\u6389\u5f97\u98de\u5feb\uff0c83.9%\u300110.6%\u30013.3%\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u590d\u6742\u3002\u76f8\u90bb\u671f\u9650\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e00\u8d77\u52a8\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u5f0f\u5403\u6389\u7684\u6b63\u662f\u5b83\u4eec\u5171\u4eab\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8f6e\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u53ea\u5269\u4e2a\u503e\u659c\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u53ea\u5269\u4e2a\u5f2f\u66f2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e8c\u30013\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u600e\u4e48\u7528<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5148\u8865\u4e2a\u80cc\u666f\u3002\u4e45\u671f\u8861\u91cf\u503a\u5238\u4ef7\u683c\u5bf9\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5e73\u884c\u79fb\u52a8\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u53f0\u505a\u591a10\u5e74\u3001\u505a\u7a7a2\u5e74\uff0c\u4e24\u8fb9\u4e45\u671f\u914d\u5e73\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u5e73\u884c\u79fb\u52a8\u4e0d\u8d5a\u4e0d\u4e8f\uff0c\u8d4c\u7684\u662f10\u5e74\u548c2\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u5dee\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u884c\u8bdd\u53eb2s10s\u3002\u4e45\u671f\u4e2d\u6027\u542c\u7740\u5929\u7ecf\u5730\u4e49\uff0c\u6211\u5f53\u65f6\u4e5f\u8fd9\u4e48\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2013\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u662f\u73b0\u6210\u7684\u6559\u6750\u30025\u67081\u65e5\u52309\u670830\u65e5\uff0c1\u5e74\u96f6\u606f\u5229\u7387\u8dcc3.1\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c10\u5e74\u6da8109.2\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002\u524d\u7aef\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u52a8\uff0c\u957f\u7aef\u72ec\u81ea\u4e0a\u884c\u3002\u4e45\u671f\u770b\u4e0d\u89c1\u8fd9\u79cd\u79fb\u52a8\uff0c\u5b83\u5047\u8bbe\u6240\u6709\u671f\u9650\u4e00\u8d77\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6309\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u7ed9\u8fd9\u8f6e\u79fb\u52a8\u6253\u5206\uff0c\u6c34\u5e73\u8d21\u732e80\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u659c\u738714\u4e2a\uff0c\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u628a10\u5e74\u7684109.2\u8fd8\u539f\u51fa98.3%\u30021\u5e74\u90a3\u8fb9\uff0c\u6c34\u5e73\u7684+48\u88ab\u659c\u7387\u7684-39\u62b5\u6389\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u524d\u7aef\u770b\u7740\u6ca1\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"764\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-formula.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5157\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-formula.png 700w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-formula-275x300.png 275w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u56e0\u5b50\u4efd\u989d\u662f\u7279\u5f81\u503c\u5360\u6bd4\uff0c\u79fb\u52a8\u5f97\u5206\u662f\u5411\u91cf\u5f80\u8f7d\u8377\u5217\u4e0a\u7684\u6295\u5f71<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e45\u671f\u4e2d\u6027\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u590f\u5929\u4e8f\u4e86\u672c\u91d1\u76849.5%\uff0c\u540c\u671f\u88f8\u630110\u5e74\u96f6\u606f\u4e8f10.9%\u3002\u5bf9\u51b2\u7559\u4e0b\u4e8687%\u7684\u4e8f\u635f\u3002\u4e0d\u662f\u5bf9\u51b2\u9519\u4e86\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u51b2\u53ea\u8ba4\u5e73\u884c\u79fb\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u66f2\u7ebf\u662f\u6b6a\u7740\u52a8\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e09\u300198% \u7a33\u5f97\u6709\u70b9\u53ef\u7591<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u7a33\u5230\u4e0d\u6b63\u5e38\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"695\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5156\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit2.png 700w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit2-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit2-300x298.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u90fd\u4fdd\u4f4f97.8%\u4ee5\u4e0a<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e03\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u4ece1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\uff0c\u5230\u4e24\u6bb5\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u518d\u52302022\u5e743\u6708\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u5360\u6bd4\u5168\u572897.8%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u57ab\u5e95\u3002\u65f6\u4ee3\u8fd9\u4e48\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7edf\u8ba1\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5360\u6bd4\u5bf9\u5206\u5e03\u53d8\u5316\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u5b83\u6d4b\u7684\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u91cc\u67d0\u79cd\u6781\u6df1\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5b83\u6d4b\u7684\u662f\u5c3a\u5b50\u81ea\u5df1\u3002\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u4e2a\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e09\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\u6446\u5728\u8fd9\u3002\u6211\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u6700\u4fe1\u5e73\u6ed1\u5668\u90a3\u4e2a\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u529b\u91cf\u8bf4\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u91cc\u771f\u6709\u4e09\u80a1\u529b\uff0c\u4e3b\u6210\u5206\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u635e\u4e86\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u90a3\u566a\u58f0\u66f2\u7ebf\u5e94\u8be5\u65e2\u753b\u4e0d\u51fa\u4e09\u4e2a\u5f62\u72b6\uff0c\u4e5f\u62ff\u4e0d\u5230\u63a5\u8fd1\u7684\u5360\u6bd4\u3002\u53d6\u5e73\u5747\u8bf4\uff0c\u96f6\u606f\u5229\u7387\u662f\u6708\u5ea6\u8fdc\u671f\u7684\u5e73\u5747\uff0c10\u5e74\u662f120\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u5747\u503c\uff0c7\u5e74\u548c10\u5e74\u5171\u4eab\u524d84\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u5929\u7136\u7ed1\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u90a3\u72ec\u7acb\u8fdc\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u5e94\u8be5\u7167\u6837\u753b\u51fa\u4e09\u4e2a\u5f62\u72b6\u3002\u5e73\u6ed1\u5668\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u672c\u6765\u5c31\u662f\u4e2a\u516c\u5f0f\u753b\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0cSvensson\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u516d\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e48\u4e00\u6761\u5149\u6ed1\u7684\u7ebf\u505a\u4e3b\u6210\u5206\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\u53ea\u5269\u51e0\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u90a3\u6362\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u62df\u5408\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u5e94\u8be5\u660e\u663e\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u9010\u4e2a\u9a8c\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u56db\u3001\u7eaf\u566a\u58f0\u66f2\u7ebf<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8981\u5206\u5f00\u8fd9\u4e09\u79cd\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5f97\u9020\u4e00\u6761\u6ca1\u6709\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">360\u4e2a\u6708\u5ea6\u8fdc\u671f\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u5404\u81ea\u72ec\u7acb\u968f\u673a\u8df3\u52a8\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7edf\u4e00\u63095%\u7b97\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u96f6\u606f\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5bf9\u5e94\u671f\u9650\u4e4b\u524d\u6240\u6709\u6708\u5ea6\u8fdc\u671f\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0a\u505a\u540c\u6837\u7684\u5206\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">92.5%\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b5068.6%\uff0c\u7279\u5f81\u5411\u91cf\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\u548c\u771f\u5b9e\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e00\u81f4\u3002\u6211\u76ef\u77400.925\u770b\u4e86\u597d\u51e0\u904d\uff0c\u6362\u4e94\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u79cd\u5b50\uff0c92.5%\u523092.6%\u3002\u6362\u6210\u76f8\u5173\u77e9\u9635\u6765\u7b97\uff0c\u566a\u58f087.1%\uff0c\u771f\u5b9e\u66f2\u7ebf97.6%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">0.925\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u6211\u505c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u7684\u5f62\u72b6\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u53d6\u5e73\u5747\u8fd9\u4ef6\u5c0f\u4e8b\u81ea\u5df1\u957f\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u8ddf\u7ecf\u6d4e\u529b\u91cf\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5155\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit3.png 700w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit3-300x230.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u7eaf\u566a\u58f0\u66f2\u7ebf\u628a92.5%\u7684\u65e5\u65b9\u5dee\u88c5\u8fdb\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5e73\u6ed1\u90a3\u4e2a\u89e3\u91ca\u4e5f\u88ab\u6392\u6389\u4e86\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u81ea\u5df1\u516c\u5e03\u65e5\u5ea6\u5230\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u62df\u5408\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u540c\u6837\u516b\u5343\u591a\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u3001\u4e03\u4e2a\u671f\u9650\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u5360\u6bd497.9%\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u66f2\u7ebf98.7%\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u671f\u9650\u7684\u566a\u58f0\u66f2\u7ebf94.2%\u3002\u5e73\u6ed1\u7684\u529f\u52b3\u4e0d\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5e02\u573a\u771f\u6b63\u52a0\u8fdb\u53bb\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5728\u4e24\u5934\u30021\u5e74\u548c10\u5e74\u96f6\u606f\u5229\u7387\u7684\u65e5\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\uff0c\u771f\u5b9e\u66f2\u7ebf0.66\uff0c\u566a\u58f0\u66f2\u7ebf0.26\u3002\u5e73\u5747\u80fd\u628a\u76f8\u90bb\u671f\u9650\u7ed1\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5bf9\u9694\u4e86\u4e5d\u5e74\u7684\u4e24\u5934\u5c31\u65e0\u80fd\u4e3a\u529b\u4e86\uff0c\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u7ed1\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u7684\u3002\u6211\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u628a\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u770b\u621098%\u91cc\u771f\u6b63\u5c5e\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u3002\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u65f6\u671f\u8fd8\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fde\u63a5\u780d\u4e86\uff0c2008\u5e7412\u6708\u52302015\u5e7412\u6708\u964d\u52300.51\uff0c2020\u5e743\u6708\u52302022\u5e743\u6708\u53ea\u52690.42\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u5e73\u5747\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u66f4\u624e\u773c\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fdc\u671f\u66f2\u7ebf\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u536093.5%\u3002\u540c\u6837\u4e5d\u4e2a\u671f\u9650\u3001\u4e0d\u53d6\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u7eaf\u566a\u58f0\u8fdc\u671f\uff0c\u53ea\u670934.4%\u3002\u8fdc\u671f\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e5f\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u516d\u53c2\u6570\u62df\u5408\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8eab\u5f71\u5728\u5e73\u5747\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014 \u672c\u6587\u57fa\u7840\u90e8\u5206\u5b8c \u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ee5\u4e0a\u662f\u666e\u901a\u8bfb\u8005\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3001\u7a33\u4e0d\u7a33\u3001\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u662f\u771f\u7684\u3002\u5f80\u4e0b\u662f\u52a8\u624b\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u5728\u54ea\u91cc\u9a97\u4eba\uff0c\u4ee3\u7801\u600e\u4e48\u6284\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e94\u3001\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4e0d\u662f\u5e73\u884c\u79fb\u52a8<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6c34\u5e73\u56e0\u5b50\u542c\u7740\u50cf\u6574\u4f53\u5347\u964d\uff0c\u4e45\u671f\u5bf9\u51b2\u542c\u7740\u5929\u7ecf\u5730\u4e49\u3002\u5b83\u6709\u4e2a\u6bdb\u75c5\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u628a\u77ed\u7aef\u9489\u4f4f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u6b6a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9053\u7406\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u76f4\u767d\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u88ab\u6441\u5728\u96f6\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u65e5\u53d8\u5316\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e3a\u96f6\uff0c\u7b97\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5b83\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u51fa\u58f0\u3002\u77ed\u7aef\u88ab\u9489\u4f4f\u65f6\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0d\u518d\u625b\u8d77\u6574\u6761\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u957f\u7aef\u5728\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6b6a\u600e\u4e48\u91cf\uff1f\u770b\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u57281\u5e74\u7684\u8f7d\u8377\u9664\u4ee5\u5b83\u7684\u6700\u5927\u8f7d\u8377\u3002\u4e25\u683c\u5e73\u884c\u79fb\u52a8\u5e94\u8be5\u662f1\u3002\u5168\u6837\u672c0.59\u3002\u6309\u65e5\u5386\u5e74\u91cd\u62df\u5408\uff0c1989\u5e740.86\uff0c2013\u5e740.06\uff0c\u4e2d\u95f4\u4e00\u8def\u6ed1\u4e0b\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"585\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fig-ratio-by-year-1024x585.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5154\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fig-ratio-by-year-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fig-ratio-by-year-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fig-ratio-by-year-767x438.png 767w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/fig-ratio-by-year.png 1344w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u6309\u65e5\u5386\u5e74\u91cd\u62df\u5408\uff0c\u9634\u5f71\u662f\u4e24\u6bb5\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u753b\u7684<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2s10s\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u8d26\u8981\u8fd9\u4e48\u7b97\u3002\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u65f6\u671f\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u6b6a\u5f97\u6700\u5389\u5bb3\uff0c\u4e5f\u6070\u597d\u625b\u8d70\u4e86\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4e45\u671f\u4e2d\u6027\u53ea\u4fdd\u8bc1\u5e73\u884c\u79fb\u52a8\u4e0b\u4e0d\u4e8f\uff0c\u4e0d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0d\u6b6a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u516d\u3001\u4e24\u79cd\u6f0f\u6cd5\uff0c2013\u548c2023<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u4e24\u79cd\u6f0f\u6cd5\uff0c\u5dee\u522b\u5168\u5728\u524d\u7aef\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2013\u5e745\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u65f6\u4efb\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4f2f\u5357\u514b\u5bf9\u56fd\u4f1a\u8054\u5408\u7ecf\u6d4e\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u51c6\u5907\u52a0\u5feb\u6216\u653e\u6162\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d2d\u4e70\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u51e0\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u5f00\u59cb\u7f29\u51cf\u3002\u5f53\u592910\u5e74\u96f6\u606f\u5229\u7387\u6da89.6\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c1\u5e74\u8dcc0.9\uff0c\u957f\u7aef\u81ea\u5df1\u8d70\u3002\u6574\u4e2a\u590f\u5929\u7ec4\u5408\u4e8f9.5%\uff0c\u88f8\u6301\u4e8f10.9%\uff0c87%\u7559\u5728\u8d26\u4e0a\u3002\u90a3\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u76841\u5e74\u6bd4\u503c0.06\uff0c\u6b6a\u5230\u6781\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2023\u5e743\u670810\u65e5\uff0c\u52a0\u5dde\u76d1\u7ba1\u673a\u6784\u5173\u95ed\u7845\u8c37\u94f6\u884c\u30023\u670813\u65e5\uff0c\u8282\u540e\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\uff0c1\u5e74\u96f6\u606f\u5229\u7387\u8dcc59.5\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c2\u5e74\u8dcc51.6\uff0c10\u5e74\u53ea\u8dcc12.3\u3002\u503a\u5238\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c10\u5e74\u96f6\u606f\u6da81.2%\uff0c2\u5e74\u96f6\u606f\u6da81.0%\u3002\u505a\u591a\u7684\u957f\u817f\u6bcf\u80a1\u8d5a\u5f97\u7a0d\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u7a7a\u817f\u7684\u540d\u4e49\u662f\u957f\u817f\u7684\u4e94\u500d\uff0c\u505a\u7a7a\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u6da8\u4e86\u5c31\u662f\u4e8f\uff0c\u7ec4\u5408\u5f53\u5929\u4e8f3.9%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"606\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5153\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit5.png 700w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit5-300x260.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e45\u671f\u4e2d\u6027\u7ec4\u5408\uff0c\u718a\u5e02\u53d8\u5e73\u548c\u907f\u9669\u884c\u60c5\u91cc\u90fd\u4e8f\u94b1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u89c4\u5f8b\u5728\u4e24\u5934\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6309\u4f4f\u524d\u7aef\uff0c\u96f6\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u63d0\u524d\u6253\u62db\u547c\u7684\u6162\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u625b\u7740\u6f0f\u3002\u524d\u7aef\u81ea\u7531\u79fb\u52a8\uff0c\u659c\u7387\u625b\u7740\u6f0f\u30022016\u548c2017\u5e74\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7f13\u6162\u52a0\u606f\u4e14\u63d0\u524d\u6c9f\u901a\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u5360\u6bd450.6%\u548c54.5%\uff0c\u6b63\u597d\u5361\u5728\u4e24\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u4e2d\u95f4\u3002\u5168\u6837\u672c\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u53ea\u67096.7%\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u662f\u6700\u9a97\u4eba\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"823\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5152\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit4.png 700w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/orig-exhibit4-255x300.png 255w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u4e24\u4e2a\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u884c\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u625b\u8d70\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u5927\u534a\u65b9\u5dee\uff08\u56fe\u53d6\u81ea\u7f51\u7edc\uff09<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e03\u30013\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u8fd8\u6709\u4e09\u4e2a\u5751<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5148\u8bf4\u5bf9\u51b2\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u4e00\u628a\u5c3a\u5b50\u538b\u4e0d\u4f4f\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u62ff\u5355\u817f2\u5e74\u53bb\u5bf9\u51b210\u5e74\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u8fd8\u526962.8%\uff0c\u4e45\u671f\u4e2d\u6027\u7684\u8fd8\u526964.2%\uff0c\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u3002\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u659c\u7387\uff0c\u6309\u4e3b\u6210\u5206\u5bf9\u51b2\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u53f0\u4f1a\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e8c\u628a\u5c3a\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u518d\u8bf4\u7559\u51e0\u4e2a\u3002Crump\u548cGospodinov\u5728\u300aEconometrica\u300b2022\u5e74\u90a3\u7bc7\u91cc\u7ed9\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u503c\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u62df\u5408\u5f97\u597d\u770b\u5c31\u9501\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u7b80\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4ee3\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u566a\u58f0\u66f2\u7ebf\u6b63\u597d\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8b66\u544a\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u54ac\u4eba\u3002\u652f\u6491\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c31\u591f\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u62df\u5408\u4f18\u5ea6\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u7b97\u672f\u767d\u9001\u7684\u3002\u4e5d\u4e2a\u671f\u9650\u91cc\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u57fa\u672c\u5c31\u662f30\u5e74\uff0c\u66f2\u7387\u8f7d\u83770.805\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd8\u6709\u4e2a\u5751\u5f88\u5e38\u89c1\uff0c\u628aPCA\u8dd1\u5728\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u503c\u4e0a\u3002\u540c\u4e00\u6bb51985\u52302026\uff0c\u6c34\u5e73\u503c\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u5360\u6bd499.9%\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b5095.2%\uff0c\u597d\u770b\u5f97\u5f88\u3002\u6240\u6709\u671f\u9650\u4e00\u8d77\u6da8\u8dcc\uff0c\u6c34\u5e73\u503c\u91cc\u5c31\u5168\u662f\u5171\u540c\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u6211\u811a\u672c\u91cc\u4e13\u95e8\u7559\u4e86\u8fd9\u7ec4\u5bf9\u7167\uff0c\u65e5\u53d8\u5316\u768497.8%\u548c83.9%\u624d\u662f\u80fd\u7528\u7684\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd8\u6709\u4e2a\u66f4\u9690\u853d\u7684\uff0c\u7279\u5f81\u5411\u91cf\u4f1a\u6f02\u79fb\u3002\u65b9\u5dee\u5360\u6bd4\u5728\u4e03\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u4e4b\u95f4\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u52a8\uff0c\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5411\u91cf\u5728\u6362\u5f62\u72b6\u3002\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53eb\u534f\u53d8\u91cf\u504f\u79fb\uff0c\u5b83\u8fd8\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u7279\u5f81\u57fa\u5e95\u91cc\u3002\u5bf9\u51b2\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u662f\u7279\u5f81\u5411\u91cf\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5360\u6bd4\uff0c\u8f7d\u8377\u5fc5\u987b\u6309\u65f6\u4ee3\u91cd\u65b0\u62df\u5408\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c4\u5f8b\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u4e2a\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u5e74\u8fd8\u5e26\u7740\u522b\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8bf4\u4e0d\u597d\u54ea\u4e2a\u662f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65f6\u4ee3\u8fb9\u754c\u6211\u7b2c\u4e00\u7248\u6309\u51b3\u8bae\u65e5\u5207\uff0c\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6bb5\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u5360\u6bd4\u7b97\u51fa51.9%\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e0d\u4e0a\u56fe\u8868\u91cc\u768455.6%\u3002\u5dee\u4e24\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u540e\u6765\u624d\u60f3\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u65f6\u4ee3\u8981\u628a\u51b3\u8bae\u65e5\u90a3\u5929\u5305\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u91cd\u5207\u4e4b\u540e55.6%\u5bf9\u4e0a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u516b\u3001\u52a8\u624b\u533a<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5148\u8bf4\u4e2a\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5751\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u7248\u811a\u672c\u6211\u628a\u4e5d\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u5f97\u5206\u5168\u6253\u4e86\u51fa\u6765\uff0c2013\u5e74\u90a3\u884c\u8d6b\u7136\u4e5d\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u624d\u53cd\u5e94\u8fc7\u6765\u53ea\u8981\u524d\u4e09\u4e2a\u3002\u6539\u6210\u524d\u4e09\u4e2a\u91cd\u8dd1\uff0c215.4\u300194.2\u3001-18.7\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6838\u5fc3\u4ee3\u7801\u4e24\u6bb5\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u6bb5\u4ece\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u6587\u4ef6\u91cd\u5efa\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u516b\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>import numpy as np, pandas as pd\nurl = \"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/data\/yield-curve-tables\/feds200628.csv\"\ncols = &#91;f\"SVENY{m:02d}\" for m in (1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30)]\ncurve = pd.read_csv(url, skiprows=9, index_col=0, parse_dates=True, storage_options={\"User-Agent\": \"Mozilla\/5.0\"})\ndy = curve.loc&#91;\"2022-03-16\":, cols].dropna().diff().dropna().to_numpy()\nlam, vec = np.linalg.eigh(np.cov(dy, rowvar=False))\nlam, vec = lam&#91;::-1], vec&#91;:, ::-1]\nprint((lam&#91;:3] \/ lam.sum()).round(3), vec&#91;:, :3].round(3), sep=\"\\n\")<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6bb5\u662f\u566a\u58f0\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u4e0b\u8f7d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u6253\u53700.925\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>import numpy as np\nrng = np.random.default_rng(20261023)\nfwd = rng.normal(0, 0.05, size=(10_000, 360))\nzero = np.column_stack(&#91;fwd&#91;:, :m * 12].mean(axis=1) for m in (1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30)])\nlam = np.linalg.eigvalsh(np.cov(zero, rowvar=False))&#91;::-1]\nprint(round(lam&#91;:3].sum() \/ lam.sum(), 3))<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u51e0\u4e2a\u53e3\u5f84\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u3002\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u53d6\u65e5\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u53d6\u6c34\u5e73\u503c\u3002\u7279\u5f81\u5411\u91cf\u7684\u7b26\u53f7\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u4f1a\u7ffb\uff0c\u56fa\u5b9a\u6210\u6c34\u5e73\u77ed\u7aef\u4e3a\u6b63\u3001\u659c\u7387\u957f\u7aef\u4e3a\u6b63\u518d\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u65f6\u4ee3\u8fb9\u754c\u6309\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u8bae\u65e5\u5207\u3002\u7ec4\u5408\u76c8\u4e8f\u7528\u671f\u9650\u4e58\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u8fd1\u4f3c\uff0c\u4e0d\u542b\u606f\u7968\u3001carry\u548c\u51f8\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6587\u672b\u6709\u5b8c\u6574\u811a\u672c\uff0cFed\u6587\u4ef6\u548c\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u6570\u636e\u4e00\u8d77\u4e0b\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u90fd\u5728\u91cc\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e5d\u3001\u6709\u4eba\u628a\u8bc1\u4f2a\u6761\u4ef6\u5199\u5728\u4e86\u660e\u5904<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6709\u4eba\u62ff\u8fd9\u6761\u7ebf\u4e0b\u4e86\u4e2a\u8d4c\u6ce8\uff0c\u6761\u4ef6\u5199\u5f97\u5f88\u7ec6\u3002\u5982\u679c2027\u5e74\u65e5\u5386\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a81\u5e74\u96f6\u606f\u5229\u7387\u5747\u503c\u9ad8\u4e8e3%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e00\u5e74\u4e45\u671f\u4e2d\u60272s10s\u7ec4\u5408\u91cc\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u5360\u6bd4\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc710%\uff0c\u4ee52028\u5e741\u670831\u65e5\u8bfb\u53d6\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u4e3a\u51c6\u30021\u5e74\u5747\u503c\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc73%\uff0c\u8d4c\u7ea6\u4f5c\u5e9f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u6309\u540c\u6837\u53e3\u5f84\u6570\u4e86\u4e00\u904d\u300222\u4e2a1\u5e74\u5747\u503c\u9ad8\u4e8e3%\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u5e74\u4efd\u91cc\uff0c13\u6b21\u7b2c\u4e00\u56e0\u5b50\u5360\u6bd4\u538b\u572810%\u4ee5\u4e0b\u30022022\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u5e74\u4efd\u5168\u90e8\u4f4e\u4e8e\u8fd9\u6761\u7ebf\uff0c2023\u5e744.4%\uff0c2024\u5e742.5%\uff0c2025\u5e744.3%\uff0c2026\u5e74\u523010\u670816\u65e58.2%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u5199\u6cd5\u6211\u8ba4\u3002\u6570\u5b57\u3001\u6761\u4ef6\u3001\u4f5c\u5e9f\u6761\u6b3e\u90fd\u6446\u5728\u660e\u5904\uff0c\u5230\u65e5\u5b50\u81ea\u52a8\u89c1\u5206\u6653\u3002\u6bd4\u957f\u671f\u770b\u597d\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5341\u3001\u628a\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u7528\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u4e0a<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u795e\u79d8\u3002\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u4e45\u671f\u653e\u8fdb\u4e5d\u4e2a\u671f\u9650\u6876\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u70b9\u4e58\u4e09\u4e2a\u8f7d\u8377\u5217\u518d\u6c42\u548c\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u548c\u7b97\u7684\u662f\u6c34\u5e73\u66b4\u9732\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u662f\u659c\u7387\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u662f\u66f2\u7387\u30022s10s\u7ec4\u5408\u4e45\u671f\u914d\u5e73\u540e\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u548c\u5c0f\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u625b\u7740\u4ea4\u6613\u672c\u8eab\u3002\u8f7d\u8377\u516b\u884c\u4ee3\u7801\u5c31\u80fd\u4ece\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6587\u4ef6\u91cc\u91cd\u5efa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u5efa\u8bae\u5927\u5bb6\u665a\u4e0a\u5c31\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u4e45\u671f\u6876\u586b\u8fdb\u53bb\uff0clevel\u3001slope\u3001curvature\u4e09\u4e2a\u66b4\u9732\u5404\u7b97\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u3002\u4f60\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u4e45\u671f\u914d\u5e73\u4e4b\u540e\uff0cslope\u90a3\u4e00\u680f\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f\u6211\u5f88\u597d\u5947\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b8c\u6574\u811a\u672c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed\u6587\u4ef6\u52a0\u8d22\u653f\u90e8\u6570\u636e\u4e00\u8d77\u4e0b\uff0c\u5168\u6837\u672c\u5206\u89e3\u3001\u65f6\u4ee3\u8868\u3001\u566a\u58f0\u66f2\u7ebf\u3001\u4e24\u4e2a\u7a97\u53e3\u7684\u76c8\u4e8f\u90fd\u5728\u91cc\u9762\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u90fd\u80fd\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u9762\u5bf9\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>import numpy as np, pandas as pd, urllib.request, os\n\nos.makedirs(\"repro_data\", exist_ok=True)\nUA = {\"User-Agent\": \"Mozilla\/5.0\"}\nMAT9 = &#91;1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30]\nZCOLS = &#91;f\"SVENY{m:02d}\" for m in MAT9]\n\ndef get(url, path):\n\u00a0 \u00a0 if not os.path.exists(path):\n\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 with urllib.request.urlopen(urllib.request.Request(url, headers=UA), timeout=180) as r, open(path, \"wb\") as f:\n\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 f.write(r.read())\n\u00a0 \u00a0 return path\n\ncurve = pd.read_csv(get(\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/data\/yield-curve-tables\/feds200628.csv\", \"repro_data\/feds200628.csv\"), skiprows=9, index_col=0, parse_dates=True)\nz = curve.loc&#91;\"1985-11-25\":, ZCOLS].dropna()\ndy = z.diff().dropna().to_numpy()\n\nlam, vec = np.linalg.eigh(np.cov(dy, rowvar=False))\nlam, vec = lam&#91;::-1], vec&#91;:, ::-1]\nprint(\"\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u5360\u6bd4\", (lam&#91;:3] \/ lam.sum()).round(4))\nprint(\"\u8f7d\u8377\uff08\u524d\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u5b50\uff09\\n\", vec&#91;:, :3].round(3))\n\nrng = np.random.default_rng(20261023)\nfwd = rng.normal(0, 0.05, size=(10_000, 360))\nzero = np.column_stack(&#91;fwd&#91;:, :m * 12].mean(axis=1) for m in MAT9])\nln = np.linalg.eigvalsh(np.cov(zero, rowvar=False))&#91;::-1]\nprint(\"\u566a\u58f0\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e09\u56e0\u5b50\u5360\u6bd4\", round(float(ln&#91;:3].sum() \/ ln.sum()), 4))<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a>#\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf<\/a>&nbsp;<a>#PCA<\/a>&nbsp;<a>#\u4e3b\u6210\u5206\u5206\u6790<\/a>&nbsp;<a>#\u9ad8\u76db<\/a>&nbsp;<a>#\u4e45\u671f\u5bf9\u51b2<\/a>&nbsp;<a>#\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8<\/a>&nbsp;<a>#\u56fd\u503a<\/a>&nbsp;<a>#\u91cf\u5316\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>&nbsp;<a>#2s10s<\/a>&nbsp;<a>#taper<\/a>&nbsp;tantrum<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u89c9\u5f97\u6709\u7528\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u628a\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8f6c\u7ed9\u540c\u6837\u5728\u8dd1\u56de\u6d4b\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c \u8005\uff1a\u8001\u4f59\u635e\u9c7c \u539f\u521b\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf7\u6807\u660e\u51fa\u5904\u53ca\u539f\u4f5c\u8005&#8230;<\/p>\n<div class=\"more-link-wrapper\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/2026\/11\/02\/%e6%94%b6%e7%9b%8a%e7%8e%87%e6%9b%b2%e7%ba%bf%e5%8f%aa%e8%a6%81%e4%b8%89%e4%b8%aa%e6%95%b0%e5%ad%97%ef%bc%8c%e7%ba%af%e5%99%aa%e5%a3%b0%e4%b9%9f%e8%83%bd%e5%81%9a%e5%88%b092-5\/\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7ebf\u53ea\u8981\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u7eaf\u566a\u58f0\u4e5f\u80fd\u505a\u523092.5%<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[17,4,5,6],"class_list":["post-5151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aiinvest","tag-ai","tag-6","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5151"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5151\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5160,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5151\/revisions\/5160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}