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\"\"
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\u6211\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u8bbe\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ebf\uff1a\u4ece2026\u5e74\u52302030\u5e74\uff0c\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u5c14\u6bcf\u80a1\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u6bd4\u6807\u666e500\u542b\u80a1\u606f\u56de\u62a5\u9ad8\u51fa\u81f3\u5c112\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u4e94\u5e74\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u770b\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u8fbe\u4e0d\u5230\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u6211\u8fd9\u6b21\u5224\u65ad\u9519\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u56de\u770b\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u548c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u4e94\u5e74\u7a97\u53e3\u5e76\u4e0d\u591a\u3002\u6309\u6bcf\u4e94\u5e74\u4e3a\u4e00\u7ec4\u3001\u524d\u540e\u76f8\u63a5\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4e00\u5171\u53ea\u6709\u4e94\u7ec4\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e09\u7ec4\u8d85\u8fc7\u6bcf\u5e742\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u4e24\u7ec4\u6ca1\u8d85\u8fc7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e94\u5e74\u7a97\u53e3<\/th>\u5e74\u5747\u8d85\u989d<\/th>\u8fc72\u4e2a\u70b9<\/th><\/tr>
2000-2004<\/td>11.69<\/td>\u8fc7<\/td><\/tr>
2005-2009<\/td>2.01<\/td>\u521a\u8fc7<\/td><\/tr>
2010-2014<\/td>2.43<\/td>\u521a\u8fc7<\/td><\/tr>
2015-2019<\/td>-3.23<\/td>\u6ca1<\/td><\/tr>
2020-2024<\/td>0.41<\/td>\u6ca1<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\u4e5d\u3001\u6211\u4e5f\u628a\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6cd5\u7528\u5728A\u80a1<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u592a\u597d\u770b\uff1a263\u7ec4\u53c2\u6570\u7684t\u503c\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6570\u662f-0.46\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u4e5f\u53ea\u67090.14\uff0ct\u503c\u5927\u4e8e0\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u53606.8%\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8dd1\u4e86\u4e00\u5927\u5708\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u7ec4\u63a5\u8fd13.0\u8fd9\u6761\u53c2\u8003\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
263 \u7ec4\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u6ca1\u4eba\u78b0\u5230 3.0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

263\u7ec4\u53c2\u6570\u91cc\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e5f\u79bb3.0\u53c2\u8003\u7ebf\u5f88\u8fdc\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u6211\u8fd8\u60f3\u7ee7\u7eed\u8ffd\u95ee\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u67d0\u53ea\u8d44\u4ea7\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53c8\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u63d0\u524d\u6311\u4e2d\u5b83\uff1f\u6211\u53c8\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u9009\u4e8617\u53ea\u7f8e\u80a1ETF\uff0c\u8986\u76d6\u6807\u666e500\u3001\u5c0f\u76d8\u80a1\u3001\u9ec4\u91d1\u3001\u539f\u6cb9\u7b49\u4e0d\u540c\u8d44\u4ea7\uff0c\u4ee5SPY\uff08\u6807\u666e500 ETF\uff09\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\u3002\u6bcf\u6b21\u5148\u770b\u8fc7\u53bb\u56db\u5e74\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u9009\u51fa\u5176\u4e2d\u6210\u7ee9\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4e00\u53ea\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u89c2\u5bdf\u5b83\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u56db\u5e74\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u4e00\u5171\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e8612\u4e2a\u8d77\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"
17 \u53ea\u7f8e\u80a1 ETF<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

17\u53ea\u7f8e\u80a1ETF\uff1a\u8fc7\u53bb\u56db\u5e74\u6311\u51fa\u7684\u51a0\u519b\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u56db\u5e74\u6301\u7eed\u9886\u5148\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e5f\u505a\u8fc7\u56de\u6d4b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5148\u4ece\u4e00\u4efd\u6700\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u8bb0\u5f55\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u8fd9\u6bb5Python\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u628a\u672c\u6587\u7528\u5230\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6b65\u9aa4\u653e\u5728\u4e86\u4e00\u8d77\uff1a\u8ba1\u7b97t\u503c\u3001\u6a21\u62df\u6ca1\u6709\u5e73\u5747\u4f18\u52bf\u65f6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u518d\u4f30\u7b97\u4eceN\u4e2a\u5019\u9009\u5bf9\u8c61\u91cc\u6311\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u5206\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

import numpy as np\n\ndef luck(excess, n_field, draws=400_000, seed=20261020):\n    \"\"\"excess \u662f\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\uff08%\uff09\uff0cn_field \u662f\u8bd5\u8fc7\u591a\u5c11\u6b21\"\"\"\n    e = np.asarray(excess, dtype=float)\n    t = e.mean() \/ (e.std(ddof=1) \/ np.sqrt(e.size))\n    rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)\n    null = rng.choice(e - e.mean(), (draws, e.size))        # \u4f18\u52bf\u5f52\u96f6\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7167\u65e7\n    t_null = null.mean(1) \/ (null.std(1, ddof=1) \/ np.sqrt(e.size))\n    p = (t_null >= t).mean()                                # \u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u78b0\u4e0a\u7684\u6982\u7387\n    return dict(t=round(t, 2), p=round(p, 5),\n                one_in=int(1 \/ p) if p else None,\n                best_of_field=round(1 - (1 - p) ** n_field, 3))\n\ndow = [-8.4, 38.5, 20.0, -6.2, 22.4, -7.6, 20.6, 18.7, 14.2, -15.6, 19.0, 7.7, -11.6]\nlp = [9.3, 32.2, 20.9, 18.6, 35.9, 11.9, 30.5, 22.3, 36.9, 16.8, 28.4, 45.6, 6.6]\nprint(luck(np.array(lp) - np.array(dow), n_field=215))\n# {'t': 4.55, 'p': 0.00031, 'one_in': 3225, 'best_of_field': 0.064}<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee3\u7801\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u53ef\u4ee5\u62c6\u6210\u56db\u6b65\uff1a\u5148\u7b97\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\uff1b\u518d\u8ba1\u7b97t\u503c\uff1b\u63a5\u7740\u628a\u5e73\u5747\u4f18\u52bf\u62ff\u6389\uff0c\u91cd\u590d\u62bd\u683740\u4e07\u6b21\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u8fd0\u6c14\u80fd\u505a\u5230\u591a\u597d\uff1b\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u518d\u628a\u4f60\u6bd4\u8f83\u8fc7\u7684\u5019\u9009\u5bf9\u8c61\u6570\u91cfN\u653e\u8fdb\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u5bf9\u8c61\u91cc\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u5e78\u8fd0\u8d62\u5bb6\u201d\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6709\u591a\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u91cc\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u8ba9\u4eba\u8bef\u4f1a\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684p\u503c\u3002\u5b83\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5df2\u7ecf\u8bd5\u8fc7\u5f88\u591a\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u5f88\u591a\u7ec4\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u624d\u6311\u4e2d\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ec4\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u53ea\u770bp\u503c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u4f30\u5b83\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd8\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u4e00\u53e5\uff1a\u8fd9\u6bb5\u4ee3\u7801\u662f\u7528\u6765\u6f14\u793a\u601d\u8def\u7684\u7b80\u5316\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u80fd\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u4e07\u80fd\u68c0\u9a8c\u3002\u771f\u5b9e\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u5e8f\u5217\u662f\u5426\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u6ce2\u52a8\u662f\u5426\u7a33\u5b9a\u3001\u53c2\u6570\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u7b5b\u9009\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5f53\u4f60\u8bd5\u8fc7\u5f88\u591a\u7ec4\u53c2\u6570\u65f6\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u628a\u6574\u4e2a\u7b5b\u9009\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e5f\u7eb3\u5165\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u68c0\u67e5\u6700\u540e\u7559\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u7ec4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u56de<\/strong>\u5230\u5965\u9a6c\u54c8\u90a3\u4e2a\u52a8\u7269\u56ed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u8fd9\u6b21\u91cd\u65b0\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u5bf91984\u5e74\u90a3\u573a\u6f14\u8bb2\u6709\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u5c14\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6210\u7ee9\u4f9d\u7136\u503c\u5f97\u5c0a\u91cd\u3002\u4f46\u628a\u65f6\u95f4\u62c6\u5f00\u770b\uff0c\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u66f4\u660e\u663e\uff0c2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\u8fd926\u5e74\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5219\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5355\u72ec\u8bc1\u660e\u5b83\u4ecd\u7136\u62e5\u6709\u540c\u6837\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u8d85\u989d\u6536\u76ca\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u5b83\u4f9d\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d5a\u94b1\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u503c\u5f97\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1b\u53ea\u662f\u201c\u5b83\u8d5a\u4e86\u94b1\u201d\u548c\u201c\u5b83\u6301\u7eed\u8dd1\u8d62\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5df2\u88ab\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6570\u636e\u8bc1\u660e\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u81f3\u4e8eN\u7a76\u7adf\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u7b97\u2014\u2014\u6309\u5c1d\u8bd5\u8fc7\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u7ec4\u6570\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u6309\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8bd5\u8fc7\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u601d\u8def\uff1f\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6211\u6562\u8bf4\u7edd\u5bf9\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u6211\u7684263\u7ec4\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u628a\u5b9e\u9645\u8bd5\u8fc7\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u6570\u6446\u5728\u684c\u9762\u4e0a\u4e86\u3002\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u603b\u6bd4\u53ea\u5c55\u793a\u6700\u540e\u90a3\u4e00\u7ec4\u6f02\u4eae\u7ed3\u679c\u8bda\u5b9e\u4e00\u4e9b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u624b\u91cc\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u5957\u56de\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u5148\u95ee\u95ee\u81ea\u5df1\uff1a\u4ece\u6700\u521d\u60f3\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5230\u6700\u540e\u51b3\u5b9a\u628a\u94b1\u6295\u8fdb\u53bb\uff0c\u4e2d\u95f4\u4e00\u5171\u8bd5\u8fc7\u591a\u5c11\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u6539\u8fc7\u591a\u5c11\u6b21\u53c2\u6570\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\u56de\u6d4b\u6700\u6015\u7684\uff0c\u672a\u5fc5\u662f\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u597d\u770b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8bd5\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6b21\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u53ea\u628a\u6700\u597d\u770b\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u6b21\u5f53\u6210\u771f\u76f8\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n
\u6765\u6e90\u4e0e\u53e3\u5f84\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n