{"id":4636,"date":"2026-08-10T07:36:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T23:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/?p=4636"},"modified":"2026-07-27T17:49:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T09:49:19","slug":"black-scholes%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e6%bc%8f%e7%ae%97%e4%ba%86%e4%b8%80%e7%ac%94%e8%b4%a6%ef%bc%8c%e5%af%b9%e5%86%b2%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91%e7%94%a8%e7%94%b0%e4%b8%ad%e5%85%ac%e5%bc%8f%e6%8a%8a%e5%ae%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/10\/black-scholes%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e6%bc%8f%e7%ae%97%e4%ba%86%e4%b8%80%e7%ac%94%e8%b4%a6%ef%bc%8c%e5%af%b9%e5%86%b2%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91%e7%94%a8%e7%94%b0%e4%b8%ad%e5%85%ac%e5%bc%8f%e6%8a%8a%e5%ae%83\/","title":{"rendered":"Black-Scholes\u6a21\u578b\u6f0f\u7b97\u4e86\u4e00\u7b14\u8d26\uff0c\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u7528\u7530\u4e2d\u516c\u5f0f\u628a\u5b83\u505a\u6210\u4e86\u751f\u610f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c \u8005\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8001\u4f59\u635e\u9c7c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color\">\u539f\u521b\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf7\u6807\u660e\u51fa\u5904\u53ca\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-21.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4637\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-21.png 900w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-21-300x128.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-21-768x327.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6587\u4e2d\u793a\u4f8b\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u6280\u672f\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u64cd\u4f5c\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<br>\u91cf\u5316\u7b56\u7565\u5f00\u53d1\u5e94\u4ee5\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u6280\u672f\u4ea4\u6d41\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\u3002<br>\u672c\u53f7\u4e0d\u8350\u80a1\u3001\u4e0d\u5356\u8bfe\u3001\u4e0d\u627f\u8bfa\u6536\u76ca\u3002<br>\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8bf7\u5408\u6cd5\u5408\u89c4\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">\u672c\u6587\u7ea6 2900 \u5b57 | \u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb 5-8 \u5206\u949f\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u5148\u6536\u85cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u4e0a\u5199\u4e86\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e00\u7b14\u6210\u672c\u5b83\u4ece\u6765\u4e0d\u7b97\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u9644\u8fd1\u53cd\u590d\u6a2a\u8df3\u3002\u6bcf\u6b21\u8df3\uff0c\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u5c31\u8981\u5bf9\u51b2\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u6bcf\u6b21\u5bf9\u51b2\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u70e7\u4e00\u6b21\u94b1\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u7b14\u53cd\u590d\u6469\u64e6\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5728\u5e03\u83b1\u514b-\u8212\u5c14\u65af\u6a21\u578b\uff08Black-Scholes\uff0c\u4e0b\u6587\u7b80\u79f0 BS \u6a21\u578b\uff09\u91cc\u662f\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6709\u4e00\u6761\u65e5\u672c\u4eba\u572880\u5e74\u4ee3\u63a8\u5bfc\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u53eb\u7530\u4e2d\u516c\u5f0f\uff08Tanaka Formula\uff09\uff0c\u628a\u5b83\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4eca\u5929\u6709\u4e09\u62e8\u4eba\u5728\u505a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u751f\u610f\u3002Capstone\u6295\u8d44\u987e\u95ee\u516c\u53f8\u7ba1\u7406\u7740 920\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6cd5\u56fd\u5174\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\u65d7\u4e0b\u7684SG CIB\u57282007\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u8fd9\u6837\u5e72\u8d77\uff0c36 South Capital\u5728\u7528\u8fd9\u5957\u4e1c\u897f\u505a\u957f\u6ce2\u52a8\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0a\u9762\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7684\u80cc\u540e\u662f\u7528\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u5957\u6570\u5b66\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u88ab BS \u6a21\u578b\u5fd8\u6389\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff1a\u5c40\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6570\u5b66\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u7528\u573a\u666f\u5c31\u80fd\u770b\u61c2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u5728100\u5757\u9644\u8fd1\u6643\u3002\u5927\u628a\u671f\u6743\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u8bbe\u5728100\u3002\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u505a\u7a7a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u671f\u6743\u540e\uff0c\u6309\u6559\u79d1\u4e66\u505a Delta \u5bf9\u51b2\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u6da8\u4e86\u5c31\u4e70\uff0c\u8dcc\u4e86\u5c31\u5356\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e00\u76f4\u5728100\u9644\u8fd1\u5c0f\u5e45\u9707\u8361\uff0c\u53cd\u590d\u7a7f\u8d8a100\u3002\u5f80\u4e0a\u7a7f\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u4e70\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u5f80\u4e0b\u7a7f\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u5356\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u4e00\u5929\u7a7f 20 \u6b21\uff0c\u4e70 20 \u6b21\u5356 20 \u6b21\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f46\u8fd9 40 \u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u76c8\u4e8f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6b63\u597d\u62b5\u6d88\u3002\u6bcf\u6b21\u4e70\u5356\u4e4b\u95f4\u603b\u6709\u4e2a\u5fae\u5c0f\u4ef7\u5dee\uff0c\u884c\u60c5\u5feb\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u504f\u79bb\u66f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u7b14\u53cd\u590d\u7a7f\u8d8a\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u6210\u672c\uff0cBS \u6a21\u578b\u4ece\u6765\u6ca1\u7b97\u8fdb\u53bb\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u662f&#8221;\u65e0\u6469\u64e6\u8fde\u7eed\u5bf9\u51b2&#8221;\uff1a\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u514d\u8d39\u3001\u968f\u65f6\u3001\u65e0\u9650\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u8c03\u4ed3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u9644\u8fd1\u6765\u56de\u78e8\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5bf9\u51b2\u6210\u672c\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4f1a\u5806\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7530\u4e2d\u516c\u5f0f\u5e72\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u5b83\u628a&#8221;\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u6c34\u5e73\u9644\u8fd1\u53cd\u590d\u6a2a\u8df3\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u6469\u64e6\u91cf&#8221;\uff0c\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u53eb&nbsp;<strong>\u5c40\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4<\/strong>\uff08Local Time\uff09\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u91cf\u7b97\u4e86\u51fa\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u516c\u5f0f\u957f\u8fd9\u6837\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>|B_t| = \u222b\u2080\u1d57 sgn(B_s) dB_s + L_t<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u770b\u7ed3\u6784\u5c31\u884c\u3002\u5de6\u8fb9\u662f\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u503c\u3002\u53f3\u8fb9\u62c6\u6210\u4e24\u9879\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u9879\u662f\u6b63\u5e38\u505a Delta \u5bf9\u51b2\u7684\u76c8\u4e8f\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9879\uff0cL_t\uff0c\u5c40\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u96f6\u70b9\u9644\u8fd1\u53cd\u590d\u7a7f\u8d8a\u7d2f\u79ef\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u6469\u64e6\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u628a\u96f6\u70b9\u6362\u6210\u4efb\u610f\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u6743\u4ef7 K\uff0cL_t \u5c31\u53d8\u4e86&#8221;\u4ef7\u683c\u5728 K \u9644\u8fd1\u6469\u64e6\u4e86\u591a\u5c11&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BS \u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e1c\u897f\u6052\u7b49\u4e8e\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u96f6\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u6709\u4eba\u5728\u9760\u5b83\u8d5a\u94b1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"574\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-local-time-concept-1024x574.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4638\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-local-time-concept-1024x574.png 1024w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-local-time-concept-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-local-time-concept-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-local-time-concept.png 1312w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u25b2 \u4ef7\u683c\u5728 100 \u9644\u8fd1\u53cd\u590d\u7a7f\u8d8a\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u7a7f\u8d8a\u90fd\u5728\u79ef\u7d2f\u6469\u64e6\u6210\u672c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7b56\u7565\u4e00\uff1a\u8d70\u5eca\u65b9\u5dee\u6389\u671f<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u6765\u81eaCapstone\u6295\u8d44\u987e\u95ee\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5b83\u7ba1\u7740920\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u3002\u4e0d\u731c\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4e0d\u8d4c\u6da8\u8dcc\u3002\u903b\u8f91\u5f88\u76f4\u63a5\uff1a<strong>\u627e\u5230\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u6700\u96be\u53d7\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u70b9\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u70b9\u4e0a\u6536\u79df\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u600e\u4e48\u627e\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5927\u91cf\u671f\u6743\u5f00\u4ed3\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u9644\u8fd1\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u70b9\u4f4d\uff0c\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u624b\u91cc\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u8d1f Gamma \u655e\u53e3\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u4e00\u9760\u8fd1\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u9891\u7e41\u5bf9\u51b2\u3002\u6bcf\u6b21\u5bf9\u51b2\u90fd\u5728\u70e7\u94b1\u3002\u70e7\u7684\u94b1\u843d\u5728\u8d26\u4e0a\u662f\u5b9e\u6253\u5b9e\u7684\u4e8f\u635f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Capstone \u600e\u4e48\u505a\uff1f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4ef7\u683c\u65c1\u8fb9\u753b\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d70\u5eca\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982 100 \u5230 110\u3002\u7136\u540e\u4e70\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d70\u5eca\u65b9\u5dee\u6389\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8ddf\u666e\u901a\u65b9\u5dee\u6389\u671f\u7684\u533a\u522b\uff1a\u666e\u901a\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u4f4d\u7f6e\u6ce2\u52a8\u90fd\u7b97\u94b1\u3002\u8d70\u5eca\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u53ea\u5728\u8d70\u5eca\u91cc\u9762\u624d\u7b97\u94b1\uff0c\u5916\u9762\u7684\u4e00\u5f8b\u5ffd\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b49\u4e8e\u628a\u6ce2\u52a8\u66b4\u9732\u7cbe\u786e\u9501\u5728\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u88ab\u8feb\u70e7\u94b1\u7684\u90a3\u4e2a\u5c0f\u7a97\u53e3\u91cc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f60\u4f1a\u95ee\u600e\u4e48\u7ed9\u8fd9\u4e1c\u897f\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff1f\u90a3\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u7530\u4e2d\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u5730\u76d8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8d70\u5eca\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8fb9\u754c\u5c31\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u80a1\u4ef7\u5728\u8fb9\u754c\u53cd\u590d\u7a7f\u8d8a\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u79ef\u7d2f\u5c40\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4\u3002BS \u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u8fd9\u4e2a\u79ef\u7d2f\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u7530\u4e2d\u516c\u5f0f\u91cc\u7684 dL_t \u9879\u4f1a\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u628a\u4e24\u4e2a\u8fb9\u754c\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4\u8d21\u732e\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8d70\u5eca\u65b9\u5dee\u6389\u671f\u7684\u516c\u5141\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u591a\u6570\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\u7528\u7684\u662f\u5e73\u6ed1\u8fd1\u4f3c\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u7b97\u5c40\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u4e70\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5b83\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f60\u8d5a\u7684\u662f\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u75db\u89c9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"574\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/02-corridor-swap-1024x574.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4639\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/02-corridor-swap-1024x574.png 1024w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/02-corridor-swap-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/02-corridor-swap-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/02-corridor-swap.png 1312w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u25b2 \u53ea\u5728 $100\u2013$110 \u533a\u95f4\u5185\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u5dee\uff0c\u533a\u95f4\u5916\u4e00\u5f8b\u5ffd\u7565<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7b56\u7565\u4e8c\uff1a\u5b9a\u65f6\u5668\u671f\u6743<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SG CIB \u5728 2007 \u5e74\u53d1\u4e86\u79cd\u5947\u602a\u7684\u671f\u6743\u3002\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u4e0d\u662f X \u6708 X \u65e5\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6d88\u8017\u5b8c\u9884\u8bbe\u65b9\u5dee\u9884\u7b97\u4e4b\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u602a\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u6362\u8fc7\u6765\u60f3\u5c31\u901a\u4e86\u3002\u6309\u56fa\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\u7684\u671f\u6743\u624d\u5947\u602a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f60\u4e70\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e09\u6708\u671f\u8ba4\u8d2d\u671f\u6743\u3002\u5224\u65ad\u662f\u8fd9\u53ea\u7968\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u4f1a\u6709\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u4f46\u524d\u4e24\u4e2a\u6708\u6b7b\u6c34\u4e00\u6f6d\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u5929\u5929\u70e7\u65f6\u95f4\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u7ec8\u4e8e\u52a8\u4e86\uff0c\u6ea2\u4ef7\u5df2\u7ecf\u70e7\u6389\u5927\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SG CIB \u5185\u90e8\u7814\u7a76\u7b97\u8fc7\uff1a\u7edf\u8ba1 Euro Stoxx 50 \u6210\u5206\u80a1\u4ece 2000 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c80% \u7684\u4e09\u6708\u671f\u5b9e\u503c\u8ba4\u8d2d\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u548c\u5b9e\u9645\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u800c\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b9a\u65f6\u5668\u671f\u6743\u7684\u89e3\u6cd5\u5f88\u66b4\u529b\u3002\u5230\u671f\u4e0d\u770b\u65e5\u5386\uff0c\u770b\u5b9e\u9645\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002\u4f60\u4e70\u4e00\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387 20%\u3001\u7b49\u4ef7\u4e8e 90 \u5929\u6ce2\u52a8\u91cf\u9884\u7b97\u7684\u5b9a\u65f6\u5668\u8ba4\u8d2d\u671f\u6743\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b9e\u9645\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u53ea\u6709 10%\uff1f\u5bff\u547d\u81ea\u52a8\u62c9\u5230\u5927\u7ea6 360 \u5929\u3002\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u98d9\u5230 40%\uff1f22 \u5929\u5c31\u5230\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6ce2\u52a8\u5c0f\u65f6\u4e0d\u70e7\u6ea2\u4ef7\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927\u65f6\u5feb\u901f\u884c\u6743\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u6d6a\u8d39\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u53eb Dambis-Dubins-Schwarz \u5b9a\u7406\u3002\u6838\u5fc3\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fde\u7eed\u9785\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a&#8221;\u6309\u65b9\u5dee\u8ba1\u65f6\u7684\u949f&#8221;\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u65b0\u8868\u793a\u6210\u6807\u51c6\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002<strong>\u7528\u65b9\u5dee\u66ff\u4ee3\u65f6\u95f4<\/strong>\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd1\u4f3c\uff0c\u662f\u4e25\u683c\u6570\u5b66\u7b49\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u8ddf\u7530\u4e2d\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u662f\u901a\u7684\u3002\u7530\u4e2d\u628a\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6c34\u5e73\u53cd\u590d\u6469\u64e6\u7684\u6210\u672c\u62c6\u4e86\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u5b9a\u65f6\u5668\u671f\u6743\u628a\u65f6\u95f4\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6210\u672c\u62c6\u4e86\u51fa\u6765\u3002\u90fd\u5728\u52a8 BS \u6846\u67b6\u91cc\u90a3\u4e2a\u6ca1\u4eba\u8d28\u7591\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"574\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/03-timer-option-1024x574.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4640\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/03-timer-option-1024x574.png 1024w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/03-timer-option-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/03-timer-option-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/03-timer-option.png 1312w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u25b2 \u65b9\u5dee\u9884\u7b97\u6d88\u8017\u8fdb\u5ea6 vs \u56fa\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u4f4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u65f6\u671f\u9650\u81ea\u52a8\u62c9\u957f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7b56\u7565\u4e09\uff1a\u4ece\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u91cc\u6252\u5b9a\u4ef7\u9519\u8bef<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8d77\u70b9\u662f 1994 \u5e74\u4e00\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u3002\u6cd5\u56fd\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6 Bruno Dupire \u7528\u51e0\u9875\u63a8\u5bfc\u89e3\u51b3\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f88\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u671f\u6743\u7684\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e0d\u662f\u5e73\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5230\u671f\u65e5\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\uff0c\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u753b\u51fa\u6765\u4e24\u8fb9\u9ad8\u4e2d\u95f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u50cf\u4e00\u5f20\u7b11\u8138\u3002\u53eb\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5fae\u7b11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BS \u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8bbe\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u662f\u5e38\u6570\u3002\u5728\u5fae\u7b11\u9762\u524d\uff0c\u5b83\u6ca1\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u7ed9\u6240\u6709\u671f\u6743\u6b63\u786e\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e0d\u540c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u600e\u4e48\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u63a8\u51fa\u6bcf\u4e2a\u884c\u6743\u4ef7\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f53\u65f6\u6ca1\u6709\u5e72\u51c0\u7684\u89e3\u6cd5\u3002Dupire \u4ece Fokker-Planck \u65b9\u7a0b\u53cd\u63a8\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e1c\u897f\u53eb\u5c40\u90e8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u5e38\u6570\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9762 \u03c3(K,T)\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u884c\u6743\u4ef7 K\u3001\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5230\u671f\u65e5 T\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9762\u521a\u597d\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u89e3\u91ca\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u6240\u6709\u671f\u6743\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u8ddf\u7530\u4e2d\u516c\u5f0f\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u3002\u5c40\u90e8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387 \u03c3(K,T) \u7ba1\u4ef7\u683c\u5728 K \u9644\u8fd1\u52a8\u5f97\u591a\u5feb\u3002\u52a8\u5f97\u5feb\uff0c\u5728 K \u9644\u8fd1\u505c\u7559\u65f6\u95f4\u77ed\uff0c\u5c40\u90e8\u65f6\u95f4\u79ef\u7d2f\u5c11\u3002\u52a8\u5f97\u6162\uff0c\u505c\u7559\u4e45\uff0c\u79ef\u7d2f\u5927\u3002\u4e24\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\u7684\u540c\u6e90\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ece\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ece\u65f6\u95f4\u79ef\u7d2f\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u600e\u4e48\u7528\uff1f\u7528\u5c40\u90e8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u7ed9\u590d\u6742\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002\u969c\u788d\u671f\u6743\u3001\u7d2f\u6cbd\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7279\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u7cbe\u786e\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6bd4\u5982\u4e0b\u6572\u51fa\u8ba4\u8d2d\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u969c\u788d\u5728 95\u3002\u4f60\u8981\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u6574\u6bb5\u671f\u6743\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u662f 95 \u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4ef7\u683c\u7a76\u7adf\u52a8\u5f97\u591a\u5feb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u505a\u4e86\u5c40\u90e8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6821\u51c6\u540e\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u771f\u5b9e \u03c3(95) \u6bd4\u5bf9\u624b\u65b9\u62a5\u4ef7\u6a21\u578b\u91cc\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u9ad8\u3002\u90a3\u4e0b\u6572\u51fa\u671f\u6743\u5e94\u8be5\u66f4\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u78b0\u969c\u788d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6bd4\u62a5\u4ef7\u91cc\u7b97\u7684\u5927\u3002\u4f60\u505a\u7a7a\u5b83\uff0c\u5bf9\u624b\u65b9\u5356\u4fbf\u5b9c\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">36 South Capital \u628a\u8fd9\u5957\u903b\u8f91\u642c\u5230\u4e86\u957f\u5468\u671f\u671f\u6743\u4e0a\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e13\u505a\u957f\u6ce2\u52a8\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e70\u7684\u662f\u4e24\u4e09\u5e74\u540e\u7684\u8d85\u865a\u503c\u671f\u6743\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b9a\u4ef7\u8bef\u5dee\u5728\u77ed\u5468\u671f\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u5dee\u4e24\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u4f46\u6eda\u5230\u4e24\u4e09\u5e74\uff0c\u5c40\u90e8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u6548\u5e94\u88ab\u65f6\u95f4\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u6781\u7aef\u884c\u60c5\u91cc\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u4f4e\u4f30\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u5177\u5c31\u662f\u6536\u5272\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u540c\u4e00\u6761\u903b\u8f91<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8d70\u5eca\u65b9\u5dee\u6389\u671f\u3001\u5b9a\u65f6\u5668\u671f\u6743\u3001\u5c40\u90e8\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5957\u5229\u3002\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e1c\u897f\u957f\u5f97\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u4f46\u5e95\u5c42\u7684\u6d1e\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BS\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u96c5\u4f46\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5149\u6ed1\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u771f\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u91cc\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u5173\u952e\u6c34\u5e73\u6709\u6469\u64e6\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5ea6\u91cf\u5355\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7530\u4e2d\u516c\u5f0f\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u88c2\u7f1d\u6495\u5f00\u4e86\u3002\u7ed3\u8bba\u5c31\u4e00\u53e5\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u6c34\u5e73\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u505c\u7559\u5bc6\u5ea6\uff0c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u7cbe\u786e\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3001\u53ef\u4ee5\u72ec\u7acb\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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