{"id":4626,"date":"2026-08-06T07:29:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T23:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/?p=4626"},"modified":"2026-07-26T15:51:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-26T07:51:59","slug":"%e4%bb%93%e4%bd%8d%e5%a4%a7%e5%b0%8f%e8%83%8c%e5%90%8e%e7%9a%84%e6%95%b0%e5%ad%a6%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e8%83%9c%e7%8e%8740%e7%9a%84%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%ef%bc%8c%e8%83%bd%e6%af%94%e8%83%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/06\/%e4%bb%93%e4%bd%8d%e5%a4%a7%e5%b0%8f%e8%83%8c%e5%90%8e%e7%9a%84%e6%95%b0%e5%ad%a6%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e8%83%9c%e7%8e%8740%e7%9a%84%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%ef%bc%8c%e8%83%bd%e6%af%94%e8%83%9c\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4ed3\u4f4d\u5927\u5c0f\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u6570\u5b66\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u80dc\u738740%\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u80fd\u6bd4\u80dc\u738760%\u7684\u66f4\u8d5a\u94b1"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c \u8005\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8001\u4f59\u635e\u9c7c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color\">\u539f\u521b\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf7\u6807\u660e\u51fa\u5904\u53ca\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-19.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4627\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-19.png 900w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-19-300x128.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-19-768x327.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6587\u4e2d\u793a\u4f8b\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u6280\u672f\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u64cd\u4f5c\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<br>\u91cf\u5316\u7b56\u7565\u5f00\u53d1\u5e94\u4ee5\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u6280\u672f\u4ea4\u6d41\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\u3002<br>\u672c\u53f7\u4e0d\u8350\u80a1\u3001\u4e0d\u5356\u8bfe\u3001\u4e0d\u627f\u8bfa\u6536\u76ca\u3002<br>\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8bf7\u5408\u6cd5\u5408\u89c4\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">\u672c\u6587\u7ea6 2900 \u5b57 | \u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb 5-8 \u5206\u949f\uff0c\u540e\u6709\u4ee3\u7801\u4e0b\u8f7d\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u5148\u6536\u85cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5927\u5bb6\u9047\u5230\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u60c5\u51b5\u6ca1\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u82b1\u4e86\u4e0a\u5343\u5c0f\u65f6\u78e8\u5165\u573a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5747\u7ebf\u3001\u6307\u6807\u3001\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u8c03\u4e86\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u591a\u5c11\u8f6e\u3002\u8e29\u5230\u4e00\u4e8c\u6ce2\u884c\u60c5\u540e\u89c9\u5f97\u81ea\u5df1\u7a33\u4e86\u3002\u7136\u540e\u9a6c\u4e0a\u4e00\u6ce2\u8fde\u8d25\uff0c\u8d26\u6237\u76f4\u63a5\u8170\u65a9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f46\u4fe1\u53f7\u6ca1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u51fa\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1a\u6bcf\u4e00\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4f60\u653e\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4ed3\u4f4d\u5dee\u4e00\u500d\uff0c200 \u7b14\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5dee\u5341\u500d\u3002\u6700\u88ab\u6563\u6237\u4f4e\u4f30\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u662f\u6307\u6807\u53c2\u6570\u3001\u4e0d\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548c\u80dc\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u80cc\u540e\u6709\u5957\u5e72\u51c0\u7684\u6570\u5b66\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u6765\u628a\u5b83\u62c6\u5f00\u7ed9\u5927\u5bb6\u770b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e00\u3001\u671f\u671b\u503c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u4f60\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u8fd8\u91cd\u8981<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5148\u8bf4\u4e00\u4e2a\u8bcd\uff1a\u671f\u671b\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f&#8221;\u8fd9\u7b14\u5bf9\u4e86\u80fd\u8d5a\u591a\u5c11&#8221;\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u628a\u8d62\u7684\u548c\u8f93\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u63c9\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u7b14\u80fd\u5269\u4e0b\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u516c\u5f0f\u957f\u8fd9\u6837\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code><strong>\u671f\u671b\u503c = (\u80dc\u7387 \u00d7 \u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u5229) - (\u8d25\u7387 \u00d7 \u5e73\u5747\u4e8f\u635f)<\/strong><\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u62ff\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u5b9e\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6bcf\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u6b62\u635f\u8bbe 500 \u5757\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a 500 \u5757\u5c31\u662f\u4f60\u8fd9\u4e00\u7b14\u7684 1R \uff0c\u4f60\u6700\u591a\u4e8f\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u3002\u8dd1\u4e86 100 \u7b14\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7ffb\u8bb0\u5f55\u7edf\u8ba1\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u80dc\u7387 40%\uff0c\u8d62\u4e86 40 \u7b14<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u7b14\u8d5a 1500 \u5757\uff0c3.00R<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u7b14\u4e8f 500 \u5757\uff0c1.00R\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6b62\u635f\u6253\u6ee1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b97\u4e00\u4e0b\uff1a\u671f\u671b\u503c = (40% \u00d7 1500) &#8211; (60% \u00d7 500) = 600 &#8211; 300 =&nbsp;<strong>300 \u5757<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6bcf\u7b14\u51c0\u8d5a 0.60R\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4eba\u8f93\u4e86 60% \u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u8f93\u5f97\u6bd4\u8d62\u7684\u591a\u3002\u4f46 100 \u7b14\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u51c0\u8d5a\u4e86 3 \u4e07\u5757\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u518d\u6362\u4e00\u7ec4\u6570\u636e\u3002\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u80dc\u7387 60%\uff0c\u4f46\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u7b14\u4e5f\u53ea\u8d5a 500\uff081R\uff09\u3001\u4e8f 500\uff081R\uff09\u3002\u671f\u671b\u503c = (60% \u00d7 500) &#8211; (40% \u00d7 500) = 300 &#8211; 200 = 100\u3002\u6bcf\u7b14 0.20R\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e24\u7ec4\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff1a\u4e8f\u5f97\u591a\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u6bcf\u7b14 0.60R\u3002\u8d62\u5f97\u591a\u7684\uff0c\u6bcf\u7b14 0.20R\u3002\u5dee\u4e86 3 \u500d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5927\u5bb6\u76ef\u7740\u80dc\u7387\u770b\uff0c\u4f46\u771f\u6b63\u8d5a\u94b1\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u80dc\u7387\u4e0d\u9ad8\u3001\u76c8\u4e8f\u6bd4\u62c9\u5f97\u5f00\u7684\u90a3\u79cd\u300240% \u80dc\u7387\u914d 3:1 \u76c8\u4e8f\u6bd4\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u4e00\u5b9a\u8dd1\u8d62 60% \u80dc\u7387\u914d 1:1\u3002\u80dc\u7387\u53ea\u662f\u5206\u6bcd\uff0c\u76c8\u4e8f\u6bd4\u624d\u662f\u5206\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e8c\u3001\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548c\u80dc\u7387\u662f\u7cbe\u786e\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u671f\u671b\u503c\u76ee\u6807\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u80dc\u7387\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u5229\u548c\u5e73\u5747\u4e8f\u635f\u5fc5\u987b\u914d\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u53cd\u63a8\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u60f3\u8981\u6bcf\u7b14\u51c0\u8d5a 0.30R\u3002\u5192 1 \u5757\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u62ff\u56de 3 \u6bdb\u3002\u80dc\u7387 50%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\u671f\u671b\u503c = \u80dc\u7387 \u00d7 \u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u5229 - \u8d25\u7387 \u00d7 \u5e73\u5747\u4e8f\u635f\n0.30R = 50% \u00d7 1.60R - 50% \u00d7 1.00R<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff1a\u6b62\u635f\u8bbe 1.00R\uff0c\u6b62\u76c8\u5f97\u8bbe\u5230 1.60R \u624d\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u53ea\u76ef\u80dc\u7387\uff0c\u4ece\u4e0d\u7b97\u671f\u671b\u503c\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u80dc\u7387 70% \u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6bcf\u7b14\u8d5a\u7684\u8ddf\u4e8f\u7684\u4e00\u6837\u591a\uff0c\u671f\u671b\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u4e0d\u5982\u4e00\u4e2a 40% \u80dc\u7387\u4f46\u76c8\u4e8f\u6bd4 3:1 \u7684\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u524d\u8005\u770b\u7740\u8212\u670d\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u8d5a\u94b1\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u770b\u7740\u96be\u53d7\u4f46\u8d26\u662f\u6b63\u7684\u3002\u4f60\u4fe1\u54ea\u79cd\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e09\u3001\u51ef\u5229\u516c\u5f0f<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u671f\u671b\u503c\u662f\u6b63\u6570\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u957f\u671f\u80fd\u8d5a\u94b1\u3002\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u6bcf\u4e00\u7b14\u653e\u591a\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u653e\u592a\u5c0f\uff0c\u590d\u5229\u6ca1\u7528\u4e0a\u3002\u653e\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u4e00\u6ce2\u8fde\u8d25\u76f4\u63a5\u51fa\u5c40\u3002\u4e2d\u95f4\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u662f\u7528\u51ef\u5229\u516c\u5f0f\u7b97\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u51ef\u5229\u516c\u5f0f\u662f 1956 \u5e74\u8d1d\u5c14\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7684 John Kelly \u641e\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u672c\u6765\u662f\u4e3a\u7535\u8bdd\u4fe1\u53f7\u566a\u58f0\u95ee\u9898\u63a8\u5bfc\u7684\u3002\u540e\u6765\u88ab Edward Thorp\uff08\u5199\u300aBeat the Dealer\u300b\u7528\u6570\u5b66\u5728 21 \u70b9\u684c\u4e0a\u8d5a\u94b1\u90a3\u4e2a\u4eba\uff09\u62ff\u8fc7\u53bb\u7b97\u8d4c\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u903b\u8f91\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u6bcf\u5c40\u80dc\u7387\u548c\u8d54\u7387\u662f\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\uff0c\u6700\u4f18\u4e0b\u6ce8\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8be5\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u516c\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>f* = (b \u00d7 p - q) \/ b\n\nf* = \u6700\u4f18\u8d44\u672c\u6bd4\u4f8b\nb = \u76c8\u4e8f\u6bd4\uff08\u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u5229 \u00f7 \u5e73\u5747\u4e8f\u635f\uff09\np = \u80dc\u7387\nq = \u8d25\u7387 = 1 - p<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u628a\u521a\u624d 0.30R\u300150% \u80dc\u7387\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u4ee3\u5165\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>p = 50%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>b = 1.60 \u00f7 1.00 = 1.60<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>q = 50%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>f* = (1.60 \u00d7 0.50 - 0.50) \/ 1.60\n= (0.80 - 0.50) \/ 1.60\n= 0.30 \/ 1.60\n= 18.75%<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">10 \u4e07\u5757\u7684\u8d26\u6237\uff0c\u6bcf\u7b14\u6b62\u635f\u5e94\u8be5\u8bbe\u5728 10 \u4e07 \u00d7 18.75% =&nbsp;<strong>18,750 \u5757<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6b62\u635f\u7684\u91d1\u989d\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5168\u90e8\u4ed3\u4f4d\u3002\u6b62\u635f\u6253\u5230\u4e86\uff0c\u4f60\u4e8f\u6389\u7684\u662f\u8fd9 18,750\u3002\u4ed3\u4f4d\u672c\u8eab\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4f60\u7684\u5165\u573a\u4ef7\u79bb\u6b62\u635f\u6709\u591a\u8fdc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">18.75% \u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u6bd4\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u5927\u4e86\u4e00\u5927\u622a\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u6559\u6750\u8bf4\u6bcf\u7b14\u6b62\u635f\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc7 2%\uff0c\u5bf9 0.30R \u7684\u7b56\u7565\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c2% \u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u6ca1\u5145\u5206\u7528\u4e0a\u4f60\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u56db\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u4ed3\u4f4d\u8dd1\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u62df\uff0c0.30R \u671f\u671b\u503c\u300150% \u80dc\u7387\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b56\u7565\u7528\u56db\u79cd\u6b62\u635f\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5404\u8dd1 200 \u7b14\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u65b9\u6848<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u6bcf\u7b14\u6b62\u635f\u5360\u8d26\u6237<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">10\u4e07\u8d26\u6237\u6bcf\u7b14\u6b62\u635f\u989d<\/th><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Full Kelly\uff081.0\u00d7\uff09<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">18.75%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">$18,750<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Half Kelly\uff080.5\u00d7\uff09<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">9.37%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">$9,375<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Quarter Kelly\uff080.25\u00d7\uff09<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">4.69%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">$4,688<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u56fa\u5b9a 2%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">2.00%<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">$2,000<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"508\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-equity-curves-1024x508.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4628\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-equity-curves-1024x508.png 1024w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-equity-curves-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-equity-curves-768x381.png 768w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-equity-curves.png 1189w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u25b2 Full Kelly \/ Half Kelly \/ Quarter Kelly \/ 2% \u56fa\u5b9a\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u56db\u6761\u7ebf\uff0c\u4e00\u76ee\u4e86\u7136<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56db\u6761\u7ebf\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u5f88\u76f4\u89c2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Full Kelly\uff0c18.75%\uff0c<\/strong>&nbsp;\u6700\u7ec8\u6536\u76ca\u4e00\u9a91\u7edd\u5c18\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u7b2c 25 \u5230 50 \u7b14\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u4e00\u6ce2\u8fde\u8d25\u76f4\u63a5\u780d\u6389\u8d26\u6237\u4e00\u534a\u3002\u56de\u64a4\u8d85\u8fc7 50%\u3002\u4f60\u5750\u5728\u5c4f\u5e55\u524d\u9762\u770b\u7740\u6570\u5b57\u5f80\u4e0b\u6389\uff0c\u624b\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u6c57\uff0c\u5927\u8111\u5f00\u59cb\u627e\u7406\u7531\u5173\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4f1a\u5e72\u9884\uff1a\u7f29\u5c0f\u4ed3\u4f4d\u3001\u6682\u505c\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u653e\u5f03\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u653e\u5f03\uff0c\u540e\u9762\u518d\u9ad8\u7684\u66f2\u7ebf\u8ddf\u4f60\u6ca1\u5173\u7cfb\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Half Kelly\uff0c9.37%\uff0c<\/strong>&nbsp;\u66f2\u7ebf\u5df2\u7ecf\u5e73\u6ed1\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u3002\u56de\u64a4\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\uff0c\u6536\u76ca\u867d\u7136\u6bd4\u4e0d\u4e0a Full Kelly\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u80fd\u4ece\u5934\u5230\u5c3e\u4e0d\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u5bf9\u6b63\u5e38\u4eba\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6267\u884c\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Quarter Kelly\uff0c4.69%\uff0c<\/strong>&nbsp;\u56de\u64a4\u5c0f\u5230\u51e0\u4e4e\u65e0\u611f\u3002\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0a\u5347\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\u6536\u76ca\u4ecd\u7136\u6bd4\u56fa\u5b9a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u56fa\u5b9a 2%\uff0c<\/strong>&nbsp;\u6ce2\u52a8\u6700\u5c0f\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u6700\u8212\u670d\u3002\u4f46\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a 0.30R \u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u5374\u53ea\u653e 2%\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u7b56\u7565\u6709\u6f5c\u529b\u4f46\u4ed3\u4f4d\u6ca1\u8ddf\u4e0a\u3002\u590d\u5229\u88ab\u4e25\u91cd\u6d6a\u8d39\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56db\u6761\u7ebf\u770b\u5b8c\uff0c\u7ed3\u8bba\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1aFull Kelly \u662f\u6570\u5b66\u6700\u4f18\uff0cHalf \u5230 Quarter Kelly \u662f\u4eba\u6027\u6700\u4f18\u3002\u4f60\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u518d\u5f3a\uff0c\u4e2d\u95f4\u88ab\u8170\u65a9\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u625b\u4f4f\uff0c\u8fd9\u624d\u662f\u771f\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e94\u3001&#8221;2% \u94c1\u5f8b&#8221;\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u5168\u5bf9<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f88\u591a\u4ea4\u6613\u6559\u6750\u8bf4\u6bcf\u7b14\u6b62\u635f\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc7\u8d26\u6237 2%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u6570\u636e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b89\u5168\u9ed8\u8ba4\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f46\u5f53\u4f60\u5df2\u7ecf\u6709\u56de\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\u3001\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u548c\u80dc\u7387\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u6b7b\u5b88 2% \u5c31\u4e0d\u662f\u4fdd\u5b88\u4e86\uff0c\u662f\u6d6a\u8d39\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u51ef\u5229\u516c\u5f0f\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u4e0d\u662f&#8221;\u5e94\u8be5\u653e\u591a\u5c11&#8221;\uff0c\u800c\u662f&#8221;\u4f60\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u503c\u5f97\u653e\u591a\u5c11&#8221;\u300218.75% \u770b\u7740\u5413\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u516c\u5f0f\u9519\u4e86\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u7b56\u7565\u7684 0.30R \u4f18\u52bf\u786e\u5b9e\u5f3a\u3002\u5b83\u503c\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u95ee\u9898\u51fa\u5728\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u3002\u8d26\u6237\u8dcc 50% \u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6ca1\u4eba\u4f1a\u51b7\u9759\u5730\u60f3&#8221;\u6309\u7167\u51ef\u5229\u516c\u5f0f\u6211\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u8fd8\u662f\u6b63\u7684&#8221;\u3002\u4eba\u53ea\u4f1a\u5173\u6389\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5220\u4e86 EA\uff0c\u53bb\u559d\u4e00\u676f\u538b\u538b\u60ca\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5b9e\u64cd\u4e0a\u7528\u7684\u662f\u5206\u6570\u51ef\u5229\uff1aFull Kelly \u7684 1\/4 \u5230 1\/2\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u7ed9\u7684\u662f\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u4eba\u6027\u53d6\u7684\u662f\u4e0b\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u516d\u3001\u62ff\u6765\u5c31\u80fd\u7528\u7684\u4e09\u6b65<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a\u7b97\u671f\u671b\u503c\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;\u62ff\u4f60\u6700\u8fd1 100 \u5230 200 \u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002\u5206\u522b\u7b97\u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u5229\u548c\u5e73\u5747\u4e8f\u635f\uff0c\u5957\u8fdb E = (\u80dc\u7387 \u00d7 \u5e73\u5747\u76c8\u5229) &#8211; (\u8d25\u7387 \u00d7 \u5e73\u5747\u4e8f\u635f)\u3002\u5982\u679c\u662f\u8d1f\u6570\uff0c\u7b56\u7565\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u5bf9\uff0c\u5148\u6539\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u522b\u60f3\u4ed3\u4f4d\u7684\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\uff1a\u7528\u6b62\u635f\u951a\u5b9a 1R\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;1R \u4e0d\u662f\u4ed3\u4f4d\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u662f\u6b62\u635f\u89e6\u53d1\u65f6\u4f60\u4e8f\u6389\u7684\u90a3\u7b14\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8d26\u6237 10 \u4e07\uff0c\u6bcf\u7b14\u6700\u591a\u4e8f 4000\uff0c\u90a3 1R = 4000\uff0c\u5360\u8d26\u6237\u7684 4%\u3002\u6709\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u951a\uff0c\u76c8\u4e8f\u6bd4\u548c\u624b\u6570\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u5012\u63a8\u51fa\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\uff1a\u7b97 f*\uff0c\u6253\u6298\u6263\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;\u51ef\u5229\u516c\u5f0f\u7b97\u51fa Full Kelly \u6bd4\u4f8b\u540e\uff0c\u4e58\u4ee5 0.25 \u4f5c\u4e3a\u8d77\u70b9\u3002\u5148\u8dd1\u51e0\u5341\u7b14\u770b\u770b Quarter Kelly \u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u4f60\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u80fd\u7684\u8bdd\u5f80\u4e0a\u8c03\u5230 0.5\u00d7\uff0c\u8c03\u4e00\u6863\u8bd5\u4e00\u6863\u3002\u5f00\u59cb\u7761\u4e0d\u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u5c31\u9000\u56de\u6765\u3002\u4ed3\u4f4d\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8bd5\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e03\u3001\u51e0\u4e2a\u6ce8\u610f\u70b9<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u56de\u6d4b\u7684\u671f\u671b\u503c\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u5b9e\u76d8\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u51fa\u6765\u7684 0.30R\uff0c\u5b9e\u76d8\u5927\u6982\u7387\u6253\u6298\u6263\u3002\u6ed1\u70b9\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u5927\u3001\u5e02\u573a\u7ed3\u6784\u53d8\u4e86\u3001\u4f60\u7684\u6267\u884c\u529b\u4e0d\u5982\u56de\u6d4b\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u7528\u51ef\u5229\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u671f\u671b\u503c\u5148\u6253\u4e2a\u516b\u6298\uff0c\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u7559\u7f13\u51b2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u8fde\u8d25\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;50% \u80dc\u7387\u8fde\u7eed\u4e8f 5 \u7b14\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7ea6 3%\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u4e8f 8 \u7b14\u4e5f\u6709 0.4%\u3002\u6982\u7387\u5c0f\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u78b0\u4e0d\u5230\u3002\u4ed3\u4f4d\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u4e0d\u662f\u8eb2\u8fde\u8d25\uff0c\u8eb2\u4e0d\u4e86\u3002\u662f\u8fde\u8d25\u53d1\u751f\u4e4b\u540e\u8d26\u6237\u8fd8\u5269\u591a\u5c11\u5b50\u5f39\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u51ef\u5229\u516c\u5f0f\u5047\u8bbe\u6bcf\u6b21\u4ea4\u6613\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5b9e\u76d8\u91cc\u4e0d\u662f\u3002\u591a\u7b14\u5355\u5b50\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u53eb\u72ec\u7acb\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u51ef\u5229\u516c\u5f0f\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f18\u4ed3\u4f4d\u4f1a\u504f\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator 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