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LPPL\uff0c\u5168\u79f0Log-Periodic Power Law\uff08\u5bf9\u6570\u5468\u671f\u5e42\u5f8b\u6a21\u578b\uff09\uff0c\u7531\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6Didier Sornette\u57281990\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u63d0\u51fa\u3002\u6838\u5fc3\u89c2\u5bdf\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u524d\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u662f\u5300\u901f\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u52a0\u901f\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u6bd4\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u8fd8\u5feb\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u9891\u7387\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9ad8\u7684\u632f\u8361\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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ln p(t) = A + B(tc - t)^m + C(tc - t)^m \u00d7 cos[\u03c9 ln(tc - t) + \u03c6]<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n
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\u2022 p(t) \u662f\u65f6\u523b t \u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff1b
\u2022 A \u662f\u57fa\u7ebf\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\uff1b
\u2022 B \u6355\u6349\u8d85\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u7ecf\u5178\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e2d B \u5fc5\u987b\u4e3a\u8d1f\uff08\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u63a5\u8fd1 tc \u65f6\u4f1a\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff09\uff1b
\u2022 C \u662f\u5bf9\u6570\u5468\u671f\u632f\u8361\u7684\u632f\u5e45\uff1b
\u2022 m \u662f\u4e34\u754c\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u6ce1\u6cab\u4fe1\u53f7\u8981\u6c42 0.1 \u5230 0.9 \u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u8d8a\u5c0f\u52a0\u901f\u8d8a\u731b\uff1b
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\u2022 tc \u662f\u4e34\u754c\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u4f30\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u7ec8\u7ed3\u70b9\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u5d29\u76d8\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f regime change\uff08\u5236\u5ea6\u8f6c\u6362\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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2025\u5e74Cao\u7b49\u4eba\u5728arXiv\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86HLPPL<\/strong>\uff08Hyped LPPL\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u7eaf\u4ef7\u683c\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e0a\u52a0\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u884c\u4e3a\u8f93\u5165\uff1a\u6765\u81ea\u91d1\u878d\u65b0\u95fb\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u5f97\u5206\uff08Sentiment Score\uff09\u548c\u8861\u91cf\u5a92\u4f53\u5173\u6ce8\u5ea6\u7684\u70ed\u5ea6\u6307\u6570\uff08Hype Index\uff09\u3002\u56de\u6d4b2018\u52302024\u5e74\u7f8e\u80a1\uff0cHLPPL\u5e74\u5316\u6536\u76ca34.13%\uff0c\u590f\u666e\u6bd4\u73871.19\uff0c\u80dc\u738772.30%\uff0c\u8dd1\u8d62\u4e86\u6301\u6709\u7b56\u7565\u548c\u7eafLPPL\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u884c\u4e3a\u8f93\u5165\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u91cd\u8981\uff1f<\/strong>\u7eaf\u4ef7\u683cLPPL\u80fd\u8bc6\u522b\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u3001\u7f8e\u5149\u3001Sandisk\u7684\u8d85\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u5206\u4e0d\u6e05\u8fd9\u79cd\u589e\u957f\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u9a71\u52a8\u8fd8\u662f\u60c5\u7eea\u9a71\u52a8\u3002HLPPL\u8865\u4e0a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u533a\u5206\u80fd\u529b\uff1a\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\u8d85\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u53ef\u80fd\u5e73\u7a33\u8fc7\u6e21\u5230\u65b0\u4ef7\u683c\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5d29\uff1b\u60c5\u7eea\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u624d\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u73b06\u6708\u5e95\u90a3\u79cd\u6025\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2026\u5e746\u67081\u65e5\uff0carXiv\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u8bba\u6587\u300aBoom, Bubble, or Buildout? A Multi-Method Evaluation of Whether Artificial Intelligence Is in an Ongoing Financial Bubble\u300b\uff0c\u628aLPPL\u6846\u67b6\u76f4\u63a5\u5e94\u7528\u5230AI\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u6838\u5fc3\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e0d\u5747\u5300\u3002\u6700\u5927\u3001\u6700\u8d5a\u94b1\u7684AI\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u516c\u53f8\uff08\u5177\u4f53\u8bf4\u5c31\u662f\u6709\u771f\u5b9e\u6536\u5165\u548c\u5229\u6da6\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u8d85\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u4e91\u5382\u5546<\/em>\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u63a7\u5236\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u589e\u957f\u540e\uff0c\u6ce1\u6cab\u4fe1\u53f7\u8f83\u5f31\u3002\u800c\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u3001\u5c1a\u672a\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5185\u5b58\u5382\u5546\u3001\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8bbe\u5907\u3001\u5149\u523b\u8bbe\u5907\u5546\uff0c\u6ce1\u6cab\u4fe1\u53f7\u5f3a\u70c8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8bca\u65ad\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff1a2026\u5e74\u7684AI\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u662f\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u88c2\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u6ce1\u6cab\u4fe1\u53f7\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u9760\u60c5\u7eea\u653e\u5927AI\u4e3b\u9898\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u5e94\u76c8\u5229\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\u56fe2\uff1aLPPL\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8d85\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e0e\u5bf9\u6570\u5468\u671f\u632f\u8361<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\u4e94\u5927\u4e91\u5de8\u5934\uff08Google\u3001Microsoft\u3001Amazon\u3001Meta\u3001Oracle\uff092024\u5e74\u4e00\u5171\u7838\u4e862410\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c2026\u5e74\u9884\u8ba1\u8981\u8d85\u8fc75000\u4ebf\uff0c\u4e24\u5e74\u7ffb\u4e00\u500d\u591a\u3002\u6574\u4e2aAI\u751f\u6001\u4ece2026\u52302029\u5e74\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u4f30\u6478\u7740\u8981\u8d85\u8fc71.6\u4e07\u4ebf\u3002Morgan Stanley\u7b97\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u652f\u51fa\uff0c2025\u52302028\u5e74\u603b\u51713\u4e07\u4ebf\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u7ea6\u4e00\u534a\uff1a1.5\u4e07\u4ebf\u662f\u9760\u79c1\u52df\u4fe1\u8d37\u878d\u8d44\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4e4b\u524d\u603b\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669\u6c60\u662f\u5206\u5f00\u7684\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u770b\u6765\u662f\u4e00\u6839\u7ef3\u4e0a\u7684\u8682\u86b1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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90%\u4f01\u4e1a\u8bf4AI\u8fd8\u6ca1\u53ef\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u540c\u4e00\u6279\u9ad8\u7ba1\u5374\u9884\u4f30\u63d0\u53471.4%\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9884\u4f30\u5bf9\u4e86\uff0ccapex\u8fd8\u80fd\u7eed\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u9884\u4f30\u9519\u4e86\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u53ea\u662f\u6162\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\uff0cLPPL\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u90a3\u5c42\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u8106\u5f31\u5c31\u4f1a\u4ece\u6570\u5b66\u6982\u7387\u53d8\u6210\u5b9e\u9645\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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arXiv \u8bba\u6587\uff1aarXiv 2606.01575\uff082026\u5e746\u67081\u65e5\u53d1\u8868\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
HLPPL \u8bba\u6587\uff1aarXiv 2510.10878\uff082025\u5e7410\u6708\u53d1\u8868\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n
NBER \u5de5\u4f5c\u8bba\u6587\uff1aWP 34836\uff082026\u5e742\u6708\u53d1\u8868\uff09<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
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#LPPL\u6a21\u578b<\/a> #AI\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53<\/a> #\u91cf\u5316\u5206\u6790<\/a> #\u5e02\u573a\u6ce1\u6cab<\/a> #\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u80a1\u7968<\/a> #\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa<\/a> #Sornette<\/a> #\u6ce1\u6cab\u68c0\u6d4b<\/a> #\u91cf\u5316\u7b56\u7565<\/a> #\u91d1\u878d\u6a21\u578b<\/a> #\u9053\u6307\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b\u5206\u5316<\/a> #Kelly\u516c\u5f0f<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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