{"id":4477,"date":"2026-07-15T07:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T23:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/?p=4477"},"modified":"2026-07-05T16:40:50","modified_gmt":"2026-07-05T08:40:50","slug":"%e4%bd%a0%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%9e%e6%b5%8b%e6%9b%b2%e7%ba%bf%e6%bc%82%e4%ba%ae%e4%bd%86%e5%ae%9e%e7%9b%98%e5%b4%a9%ef%bc%9f%e5%a4%9a%e5%8d%8a%e6%98%af%e8%bf%99%e9%87%8c%e5%87%ba%e4%ba%86%e9%97%ae%e9%a2%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/2026\/07\/15\/%e4%bd%a0%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%9e%e6%b5%8b%e6%9b%b2%e7%ba%bf%e6%bc%82%e4%ba%ae%e4%bd%86%e5%ae%9e%e7%9b%98%e5%b4%a9%ef%bc%9f%e5%a4%9a%e5%8d%8a%e6%98%af%e8%bf%99%e9%87%8c%e5%87%ba%e4%ba%86%e9%97%ae%e9%a2%98\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4f60\u7684\u56de\u6d4b\u66f2\u7ebf\u6f02\u4eae\u4f46\u5b9e\u76d8\u5d29\uff1f\u591a\u534a\u662f\u8fd9\u91cc\u51fa\u4e86\u95ee\u9898"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8001\u4f59\u635e\u9c7c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color\">\u539f\u521b\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf7\u6807\u660e\u51fa\u5904\u53ca\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4480\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-4.png 900w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-4-300x128.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cover-4-768x327.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6587\u4e2d\u793a\u4f8b\u4ec5\u7528\u4e8e\u6280\u672f\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u64cd\u4f5c\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<br>\u91cf\u5316\u7b56\u7565\u5f00\u53d1\u5e94\u4ee5\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u6280\u672f\u4ea4\u6d41\u4e3a\u76ee\u7684\u3002<br>\u672c\u53f7\u4e0d\u8350\u80a1\u3001\u4e0d\u5356\u8bfe\u3001\u4e0d\u627f\u8bfa\u6536\u76ca\u3002<br>\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8bf7\u5408\u6cd5\u5408\u89c4\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">\u672c\u6587\u7ea6 2800 \u5b57 | \u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb 5 \u5206\u949f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u00b7 \u00b7 \u00b7<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u505a\u91d1\u878d ML \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5361\u5728&#8221;\u7279\u5f81\u5de5\u7a0b&#8221;\u8fd9\u4e00\u5173\u3002\u6307\u6807\u5806\u4e86\u4e00\u5806\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u8dd1\u5f97\u4e5f\u5f88\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u56de\u6d4b\u66f2\u7ebf\u770b\u7740\u6f02\u4eae\uff0c\u4e00\u4e0a\u5b9e\u76d8\u5c31\u5d29\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u539f\u56e0\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\uff1a\u5582\u7ed9\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u566a\u58f0\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u5b66\u5230\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u662f\u968f\u673a\u6270\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4eca\u5929\u5c31\u804a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u89e3\u6cd5\uff1a\u5728\u9690\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\uff08HMM\uff09\u505a\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u6001\u8bc6\u522b\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5148\u7528\u4e00\u5c42\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u6ee4\u6ce2\u505a\u566a\u58f0\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u601d\u8def\u4e0d\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u4f46\u6548\u679c\u624e\u5b9e\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u505a\u91cf\u5316 ML \u7684\u670b\u53cb\u7ec6\u770b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e00\u3001HMM \u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6015\u566a\u58f0<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5148\u8bf4 HMM\uff08Hidden Markov Model\uff0c\u9690\u9a6c\u5c14\u53ef\u592b\u6a21\u578b\uff09\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u91cc\u5e72\u4ec0\u4e48\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e0b\u4e00\u6839 K \u7ebf\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u662f\u56de\u7b54\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u5de5\u7a0b\u5316\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5904\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u72b6\u6001\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6bd4\u5982\uff1a\u4f4e\u6ce2\u52a8\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\u3001\u72b6\u6001\u8fc7\u6e21\u671f\u3001\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52a8\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u4e09\u79cd regime\uff08\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u6001\uff09\u3002HMM \u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u53cd\u63a8\u80cc\u540e\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u5e8f\u5217\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u7ed9 HMM \u5582\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5f88\u514b\u5236\uff0c\u5c31\u56db\u4e2a\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u7279\u5f81<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u542b\u4e49<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>\u4e00\u65e5\u5bf9\u6570\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08log return\uff09<\/td><td>\u5f53\u5929\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u53d8\u52a8<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u5df2\u5b9e\u73b0\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff08realized vol\uff09<\/td><td>\u8fd1\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u7edd\u5bf9\u6c34\u5e73<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u52a8\u91cf\uff08momentum\uff09<\/td><td>\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u538b\u529b\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u6bd4\u7387\uff08volume ratio\uff09<\/td><td>\u6210\u4ea4\u76f8\u5bf9\u5747\u91cf\u7684\u504f\u79bb<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c31\u8fd9\u56db\u4e2a\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709 RSI\u3001MACD\u3001\u5e03\u6797\u5e26\u3001\u591a\u4e2a\u5747\u7ebf\u3001\u5404\u79cd lag \u53d8\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u4ece\u540c\u4e00\u6839\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u66f2\u7ebf\u6d3e\u751f\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u53e0\u591a\u4e86\u5c31\u662f\u5197\u4f59\u566a\u58f0\u3002HMM \u4f1a\u57fa\u4e8e\u5197\u4f59\u7279\u5f81\u5207\u51fa\u4e00\u4e9b\u865a\u5047\u7684 state \u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4 regime \u9891\u7e41\u5207\u6362\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u8bbe\u8ba1\u539f\u5219\u4e00\uff1a\u514b\u5236\u3002<\/strong>\u7279\u5f81\u7a7a\u95f4\u8981\u5c0f\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u9ad8\u7684\u522b\u90fd\u585e\u8fdb\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u8bbe\u8ba1\u539f\u5219\u4e8c\uff1a\u566a\u58f0\u63a7\u5236\u3002<\/strong>\u628a\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u8be5\u5bf9\u6bcf\u65e5\u6ce2\u52a8\u654f\u611f\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u5148\u5e73\u6ed1\u6389\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e8c\u3001\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7528\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u6ee4\u6ce2\u505a\u8fd9\u4e00\u5c42<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u6ee4\u6ce2\u7684\u9002\u7528\u573a\u666f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f60\u76f8\u4fe1\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u89c2\u6d4b\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6d4b\u91cf\u503c\u90fd\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u52a0\u4e0a\u566a\u58f0\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u5957\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u7279\u5f81\u4e0a\uff0c\u521a\u597d\u5408\u9002\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5df2\u5b9e\u73b0\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u4e0d\u4f1a\u771f\u7684\u4ece\u67d0\u4e2a\u7a33\u5b9a\u6c34\u5e73\u4e00\u5929\u8df3\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u52a8\u91cf\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u51e0\u5929\u5185\u6f14\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u592a\u4f1a\u77ac\u79fb\u3002\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u538b\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u53d8\u5316\u5feb\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u653e\u91cf\u5c16\u5cf0\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8be5\u88ab\u6a21\u578b\u8bc6\u522b\u4e3a regime \u5207\u6362\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u52a0\u4e00\u5c42\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u6ee4\u6ce2\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u6d41\u53d8\u6210\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u89c2\u6d4b\u503c\uff08observed feature value\uff09\uff1a \u4f60\u4ece\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u76f4\u63a5\u7b97\u51fa\u6765\u7684<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5e73\u6ed1\u540e\u7684\u6f5c\u53d8\u91cf\uff08smoother latent signal\uff09\uff1a \u5582\u7ed9 HMM \u7684&#8221;\u5e72\u51c0&#8221;\u4fe1\u53f7<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u6837 HMM \u62ff\u5230\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u590d\u6742\u5ea6\u4e0d\u7528\u52a0\uff0c\u6548\u679c\u5f80\u5f80\u6bd4\u5806\u7279\u5f81\u8fd8\u7a33\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"773\" height=\"519\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-kalman-layers.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4481\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-kalman-layers.png 773w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-kalman-layers-300x201.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/01-kalman-layers-768x516.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 773px) 100vw, 773px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u56fe1\uff1a\u539f\u59cb\u4fe1\u53f7 vs \u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u5e73\u6ed1\u540e\u7684\u6f5c\u53d8\u91cf<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e09\u3001\u4e0d\u540c\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u901f\u5ea6\u5e94\u8be5\u4e0d\u540c<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u662f\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u8e29\u5751\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1a\u5f88\u591a\u6559\u7a0b\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60&#8221;\u5bf9\u7279\u5f81\u505a\u5e73\u6ed1&#8221;\u5c31\u5b8c\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u5e73\u6ed1\u52a8\u5f97\u592a\u72e0\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u628a\u771f\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e5f\u62b9\u6389\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\uff1a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7279\u5f81\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u5141\u8bb8\u4ee5\u591a\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u5206\u5f00\u8bbe\u7f6e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u7279\u5f81<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u5e94\u8be5\u7684\u901f\u5ea6<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\u539f\u56e0<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>\u5bf9\u6570\u6536\u76ca\u7387<\/td><td>\u5feb<\/td><td>\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u538b\u529b\u53d8\u5316\u5feb\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5e73\u6ed1\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6a21\u578b\u53cd\u5e94\u8fdf\u949d<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u5df2\u5b9e\u73b0\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387<\/td><td>\u6162<\/td><td>\u6ce2\u52a8\u6c34\u5e73\u6f14\u5316\u6709\u60ef\u6027\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u654f\u611f\u4f1a\u8bef\u5224 regime<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u52a8\u91cf<\/td><td>\u6162<\/td><td>\u52a8\u91cf\u901a\u5e38\u5728\u6570\u65e5\u5185\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u4e00\u5929\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e0d\u7b97\u52a8\u91cf\u53d8\u5316<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u6bd4\u7387<\/td><td>\u4e2d\u7b49\uff08\u8c28\u614e\uff09<\/td><td>\u7a81\u53d1\u7684\u653e\u91cf\u5c16\u5cf0\u6709\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\u5c16\u5cf0\u4e0d\u5e94\u91cd\u5b9a\u4e49\u6574\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\u72b6\u6001<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6240\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u5c40\u5e73\u6ed1\u53c2\u6570\u57fa\u672c\u90fd\u592a\u7c97\u66b4\u3002\u66f4\u7a33\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u662f\u6309\u7279\u5f81\u5206\u7ec4\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7c7b\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4fe1\u53f7\uff1a\u54cd\u5e94\u5feb<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7c7b\u6ce2\u52a8\/\u52a8\u91cf\u4fe1\u53f7\uff1a\u54cd\u5e94\u6162<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u4fe1\u53f7\uff1a\u5355\u72ec\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u7559\u610f\u5c16\u5cf0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76ee\u6807\u4e0d\u662f\u628a\u98ce\u9669\u85cf\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u662f\u963b\u6b62\u566a\u58f0\u6d4b\u91cf\u53bb\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6f5c\u53d8\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u56db\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u90e8\u7f72\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u8fb9\u754c<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f88\u591a\u56e2\u961f\u91cf\u5316\u6a21\u578b\u505a\u4e0d\u5b9e\u76d8\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u51fa\u5728\u56e0\u679c\u6027\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u5c42\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u5728\u56de\u6d4b\u91cc\u662f\u4e2a&#8221;\u7814\u7a76\u6280\u5de7&#8221;\uff0c\u5b83\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u5b9e\u76d8 serving \u8def\u5f84\u91cc\u4e5f\u8dd1\u5f97\u901a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5fc5\u987b\u53ef\u590d\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8def\u5f84\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u52a0\u8f7d\u8bad\u7ec3\u597d\u7684 scaler \u548c\u6a21\u578b\u72b6\u6001\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u63a5\u6536\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u884c\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\uff08OHLCV\uff09\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ea\u7528\u5230 t \u65f6\u523b\u53ca\u4e4b\u524d\u6570\u636e\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u7279\u5f81\u5411\u91cf\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u66f4\u65b0\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u72b6\u6001\uff08\u53ea\u7528 t \u65f6\u523b\u53ca\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff09\uff1b<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u628a\u5e73\u6ed1\u540e\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5411\u91cf\u9001\u5165\u5355\u5411\uff08forward-only\uff09HMM \u63a8\u7406\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6761\u7279\u522b\u5173\u952e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u5e73\u6ed1\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b65\u7528\u5230\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u89c2\u6d4b\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u6574\u4e2a\u56de\u6d4b\u7a97\u53e3\u4e00\u6b21\u8dd1\u5b8c\uff09\uff0cHMM \u8f93\u5165\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u6cc4\u9732\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u6570\u636e\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\u5019\u54ea\u6015 HMM \u672c\u8eab\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u8def\u5f84\u518d\u5e72\u51c0\uff0c\u90fd\u6551\u4e0d\u56de\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u628a\u8fd9\u6761\u539f\u5219\u5f52\u7eb3\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u6d01\u7684\u8868\u8ff0\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53ea\u6709 t \u65f6\u523b\u53ca\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd t \u65f6\u523b\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5411\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u7b56\u7565\u56e2\u961f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u7279\u522b\u5bb9\u6613\u8e29\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5751\u3002\u56de\u6d4b\u91cc&#8221;\u5168\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u8dd1\u4e00\u904d\u5361\u5c14\u66fc&#8221;\u548c\u5b9e\u76d8\u91cc&#8221;\u9010\u6839 K \u7ebf\u66f4\u65b0&#8221;\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5206\u5e03\u5dee\u5f97\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u70b9\u534a\u70b9\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5bf9\u4e0a\u4e86\uff0c\u5b9e\u76d8\u8868\u73b0\u548c\u56de\u6d4b\u8868\u73b0\u624d\u771f\u6b63\u5f00\u59cb\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"813\" height=\"396\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/02-causal-pipeline.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4482\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/02-causal-pipeline.png 813w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/02-causal-pipeline-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/02-causal-pipeline-768x374.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 813px) 100vw, 813px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u56fe2\uff1a\u5b9e\u76d8\u56e0\u679c\u6027 pipeline\uff08\u53ea\u6709\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u63a8\u65ad\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e94\u3001\u8fd9\u5957\u67b6\u6784\u771f\u6b63\u6539\u5584\u7684\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u7cfb\u7edf\u81ea\u52a8\u8d5a\u94b1\uff0c\u5b83\u6539\u5584\u7684\u662f\u4fe1\u53f7\u94fe\u8def\u4e0a\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u7eaa\u5f8b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>regime \u5207\u6362\u66f4\u5c11\u4e71\u8df3<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>HMM \u8f93\u5165\u66f4\u5e72\u51c0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u72b6\u6001\u6982\u7387\u66f4\u7a33\u5b9a<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u56de\u6d4b\u548c\u5b9e\u76d8\u63a8\u7406\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5bf9\u9f50<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u3001\u7279\u5f81\u72b6\u6001\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u72b6\u6001\u3001\u4fe1\u53f7\u903b\u8f91\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u8fb9\u754c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u6761\u5bf9\u751f\u4ea7 ML \u6765\u8bf4\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f53\u6a21\u578b\u8f93\u51fa\u770b\u7740\u4e0d\u5bf9\uff0c\u4f60\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u5206\u5c42\u68c0\u67e5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u539f\u59cb OHLCV \u884c\u6709\u6548\u5417\uff1f\u56e0\u679c\u7279\u5f81\u7b97\u5bf9\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u72b6\u6001\u66f4\u65b0\u7b26\u5408\u9884\u671f\u5417\uff1fHMM \u6982\u7387\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\u7b49\u4e8e 1 \u5417\uff1f\u4fe1\u53f7\u903b\u8f91\u7528\u5bf9\u4e86 regime \u548c\u9608\u503c\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c42\u6df7\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a notebook cell \u91cc\uff0c\u8c03\u8bd5\u5c31\u53d8\u6210\u731c\u8c1c\u6e38\u620f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"912\" height=\"596\" src=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/03-layer-debug.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4483\" srcset=\"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/03-layer-debug.png 912w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/03-layer-debug-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/03-layer-debug-768x502.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 912px) 100vw, 912px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u56fe3\uff1a\u6a21\u578b\u5f02\u5e38\u65f6\u7684\u5206\u5c42\u6392\u67e5\u8def\u5f84<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u516d\u3001\u91d1\u878d ML \u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5de5\u7a0b<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7279\u5f81\u5de5\u7a0b\u4e0d\u662f&#8221;\u52a0\u66f4\u591a\u6307\u6807&#8221;\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d ML \u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7279\u5f81\u5de5\u7a0b\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e09\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1) \u6a21\u578b\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u5141\u8bb8\u770b\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u606f\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2) \u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u5e94\u8be5\u6709\u591a\u5927\u7684\u566a\u58f0\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3) \u5b9e\u76d8\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u590d\u73b0\u540c\u6837\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f15\u5165\u672a\u6765\u6570\u636e\u6cc4\u9732\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e09\u70b9\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u51b3\u5b9a\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u843d\u5730\u7684\u5206\u6c34\u5cad\u3002\u6307\u6807\u5e93\u662f\u6b7b\u7684\uff0c\u5de5\u7a0b\u7eaa\u5f8b\u662f\u6d3b\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u559c\u6b22\u5728 HMM \u4e4b\u524d\u653e\u4e00\u5c42\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u5e73\u6ed1\uff1a\u5b83\u4e0d\u5927\u3001\u4e0d\u82b1\u54e8\u3001\u5bb9\u6613\u8bb2\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u4f46\u4f1a\u903c\u7740\u4f60\u56de\u7b54\u5bf9\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u54ea\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u7279\u5f81\u5e94\u8be5\u53d8\u5316\u5feb\uff1f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u54ea\u4e9b\u5e94\u8be5\u53d8\u5316\u6162\uff1f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u566a\u58f0\uff1f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u7ed3\u6784\uff1f<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u56de\u6d4b\u548c\u5b9e\u76d8\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b97\u51fa\u540c\u6837\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff1f<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u6bd4\u518d\u52a0\u4e00\u6839\u6307\u6807\u7ebf\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e03\u3001\u89c2\u70b9\u603b\u7ed3<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u505a\u91d1\u878d ML 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class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7279\u5f81\u592a\u591a\u3001\u592a\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u5b66\u5230\u7684\u662f\u5197\u4f59\u566a\u58f0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7279\u5f81\u91cc\u5077\u5077\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u6570\u636e\uff0cHMM\/transformer \u8dd1\u5f97\u518d\u5e72\u51c0\u90fd\u6551\u4e0d\u56de\u6765<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8865\u4e00\u5c42\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e00\u7ec4&#8221;\u6309\u7279\u5f81\u8bbe\u5e73\u6ed1\u901f\u5ea6&#8221;\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u7eaa\u5f8b\uff0c\u80fd\u89e3\u51b3\u4e00\u5927\u534a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f60\u5bf9\u91d1\u878d ML \u7279\u5f81\u5de5\u7a0b\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5fc3\u5f97\uff1f\u8bc4\u8bba\u533a\u804a\u804a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p 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