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\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u548c\u6770\u7f57\u59c6-\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14–\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u6d3e\u6765\u62ef\u6551\u6211\u4eec\u514d\u4e8e\u751f\u6d3b\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u4eba–\u5c06\u5229\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\u5230\u4e86 22 \u5e74\u6765\u7684\u65b0\u9ad8 5.5%\u3002\u8ba9\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u652f\u4ed8\u4ee4\u4eba\u77a0\u76ee\u7684\u623f\u8d37\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d1\u5c55\u58ee\u5927\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u8001\u5f0f\u4f53\u80b2\u9986\u706d\u706b\u5668\u548c\u4ed6\u4eec\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff1a\u52a0\u606f\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u3002\u8fd9\u5f88\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4ece 8.2% \u964d\u81f3 3.4%\u3002\u867d\u7136\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u672b\u65e5\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u8d70\u51fa “\u68ee\u6797”\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u51ef\u831c-\u4f0d\u5fb7\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5979\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u80a1\u5e02\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u6574\u4f53\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u80a1\u7968\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u6b63\u5728\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u8d70\u5411\u51b0\u51b7\u7684\u7a97\u53f0\u4e00\u89d2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5979\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684 “\u523a\u6fc0”\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
Cathie Wood \u2014 Source<\/a><\/strong><\/pre>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\n
\u201cThere\u2019ll be a harder landing in the economy than most expect. The equity market has narrowed to just a few stocks, with mega-cap tech stocks accounting for 75 % of the market\u2019s move.
“\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u786c\u7740\u9646\u4f1a\u6bd4\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9884\u671f\u7684\u8981\u4e25\u91cd\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u7f29\u5c0f\u5230\u53ea\u6709\u51e0\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8d85\u5927\u5e02\u503c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u5360\u5e02\u573a\u8d70\u52bf\u7684 75%\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\n
Narrowing tends to be, if sustained, very negative. It means we\u2019re setting up for a bear market. We\u2019re going into a harder landing than most expect.
\u5982\u679c\u6301\u7eed\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u8d1f\u9762\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u718a\u5e02\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u6bd4\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u8270\u96be\u7684\u7740\u9646\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\n
It\u2019ll be uncomfortable enough for companies that are losing pricing power and experiencing margin pressure and will force them to adopt these new technologies faster than otherwise would be the case\u201d.
\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u6b63\u5728\u5931\u53bb\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6743\u548c\u627f\u53d7\u5229\u6da6\u538b\u529b\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u5b83\u4eec\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u8feb\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u4ee5\u6bd4\u539f\u6765\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u6280\u672f”\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\n
When you do a little digging into the S&P500 using a detailed breakdown of the top 10 companies in the index, eight out of the top ten are tech stocks; collectively, they make up 30.84% of the entire market.
\u5f53\u4f60\u5bf9\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14 500 \u6307\u6570\u4e2d\u6392\u540d\u524d\u5341\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u8fdb\u884c\u7ec6\u5206\u65f6\uff0c\u524d\u5341\u540d\u4e2d\u6709\u516b\u5bb6\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\uff1b\u5b83\u4eec\u603b\u5171\u5360\u6574\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\u7684 30.84%\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u5979\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a\u5728\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u7684 10 \u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709 8 \u53ea\u90fd\u662f\u5ba3\u4f20\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u672a\u6765\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u8bf7\u67e5\u770b\u4e0b\u56fe\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u79d1\u6280\u884c\u4e1a\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e1a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u589e\u957f\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7092\u4f5c\u5c06\u6d88\u9000\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5728\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4ecd\u5f98\u5f8a\u5728 3.4%\uff08\u9ad8\u4e8e 3.38% \u7684\u957f\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8c03\u6574\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
Michael Burry \u2014\u00a0Source<\/a><\/strong><\/pre>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\n
\u201cInflation appears in spikes. When the spike resolves, it won\u2019t be because of Biden or Powell. It will be because that is the essence, the nature of inflation.It resolves, fools people and then comes back.
“\u901a\u80c0\u4ee5\u5cf0\u503c\u5f62\u5f0f\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u5f53\u5cf0\u503c\u6d88\u5931\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u62dc\u767b\u6216\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u548c\u6027\u8d28\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\n
When it comes back, neither the POTUS nor the Fed will take credit\u201d.
\u5f53\u5b83\u56de\u6765\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u548c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9080\u529f”\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u8d4c\u6ce8 16 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
Burry \u5bf9\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14 500 \u6307\u6570\u548c\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b 100 \u6307\u6570\u4e0b\u4e86\u770b\u8dcc\u8d4c\u6ce8\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684 Scion \u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u57fa\u91d1\u4e70\u5165\u4e86 8.66 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u8ddf\u8e2a\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14 500 \u6307\u6570\u7684 “\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743 “\u548c 7.39 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u9488\u5bf9\u8ddf\u8e2a\u7eb3\u65af\u8fbe\u514b 100 \u6307\u6570\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u7684 “\u770b\u8dcc\u671f\u6743”\u3002\u8fd9\u5360\u5176\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7684 93%\u3002\u5728\u5916\u4eba\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u4e9b\u53ef\u7b11\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8db3\u591f\u7cbe\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u4ed6\u4e70\u5165\u80a1\u7968\u6216\u5efa\u7acb\u7a7a\u5934\u5934\u5bf8\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u90fd\u80fd\u8ddf\u968f\u4ed6\u5728\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97 38.4% \u7684\u5e74\u5316\u603b\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14 500 \u6307\u6570 ETF (SPY) \u540c\u671f\u7684\u5e74\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e3a 9.3%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5bf9 “\u8ba4\u6cbd\u671f\u6743 “\u7684 13F \u586b\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u4ed6\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u8005\u8bf4<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e13\u5bb6\u62c9\u4e4c\u5c14-\u5e15\u5c14\uff08Raoul Pal\uff09\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u8654\u8bda\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5bf9\u8c61\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u5df2\u7ecf\u89c1\u5e95\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff08\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec ISM\uff09\uff0c\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u5c06\u5728\u5927\u9009\u540e\u81f3 2024 \u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u5e74\u672b\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\u51fa\u73b0\u8f6c\u6298\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u7528\u4ed6\u7684\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c”\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u89e6\u53ca\u9999\u8549\u533a”\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4ef7\u683c\u75af\u72c2\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u62c9\u4e4c\u5c14\u8bf4\uff1a”\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u6d41\u901a\u4e2d\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5f53\u60a8\u628a S&P500 \u548c M2 \u8d27\u5e01\uff08\u6240\u6709\u6d41\u901a\u4e2d\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\uff09\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4f1a\u76f8\u4e92\u6620\u886c\u3002\u62c9\u4e4c\u5c14-\u5e15\u5c14”\u5f53\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u6539\u53d8\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u4f1a\u6539\u53d8”\u3002\u5e15\u5c14\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u770b\u5230\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u592a\u591a\u7406\u7531\u8ba9\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u56de\u5230\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
Raoul Pal \u2014\u00a0Source<\/a><\/strong><\/pre>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\n
\u201cIf I\u2019m right in what I\u2019ve laid out, the economy is slow right now. We\u2019re in a recession. It\u2019ll recover next year, and we\u2019ll be in the sweet spot where the economy is recovering and earnings are coming back.
“\u5982\u679c\u6211\u8bf4\u7684\u6ca1\u9519\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7f13\u6162\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u8870\u9000\u671f\u3002\u660e\u5e74\u5c31\u4f1a\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5904\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u548c\u76c8\u5229\u56de\u5347\u7684\u751c\u871c\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
\n
Earnings are coming back, but inflation is falling, and unemployment is rising, which leaves the Central Bank injecting liquidity in an election year where the government will stimulate, creating a powerful boost for the markets\u201d.
\u6536\u5165\u6b63\u5728\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u6b63\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u5927\u9009\u5e74\u6ce8\u5165\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u5728\u5927\u9009\u5e74\u91c7\u53d6\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6765\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u529b”\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u89c2\u70b9\u603b\u7ed3<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u4f4d YouTuber \u8bf4\uff0c\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14-\u4f2f\u91cc “\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u8fc7\u53bb 3 \u6b21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\u7684 60 \u6b21”\u3002\u5728\u641e\u7b11\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u5de7\u5999\u5730\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u5b9e\uff1a\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u8fd9\u90fd\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u731c\u6d4b\u3002\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u672a\u6765\u8fd8\u6709\u592a\u591a\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u8fd8\u5728\u82b1\u7740\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u514d\u8d39\u8d44\u91d1\u96e8\u70b9\u822c\u7838\u5411\u6211\u4eec\u65f6\u7684\u6ea2\u51fa\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u6d88\u5931\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u5c31\u4f1a\u50cf\u6076\u81ed\u4e00\u6837\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ed9\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u80a1\u5e02\u589e\u957f\u5e26\u6765\u8fc7\u5927\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u538b\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u4e0e\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14-\u4f2f\u91cc\u7684\u8bba\u70b9\u4e0d\u8c0b\u800c\u5408\u3002\u4ed6\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u5fc5\u5c06\u5c48\u670d\u3002\u5f53\u4ed6\u628a\u8d4c\u6ce8\u62bc\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0a\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4fe1\u606f\u5c31\u5f88\u96be\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n