{"id":1373,"date":"2024-08-29T07:53:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-28T23:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.laoyulaoyu.top\/?p=1373"},"modified":"2024-08-23T15:53:44","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T07:53:44","slug":"%e8%b6%85%e8%b6%8a-cape-%e6%97%a7%e6%a8%a1%e5%bc%8f%ef%bc%8cp-cape-%e5%bc%80%e5%88%9b%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e5%9b%9e%e6%8a%a5%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e6%96%b0%e5%b1%80%e9%9d%a2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/laoyulaoyu.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/29\/%e8%b6%85%e8%b6%8a-cape-%e6%97%a7%e6%a8%a1%e5%bc%8f%ef%bc%8cp-cape-%e5%bc%80%e5%88%9b%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e5%9b%9e%e6%8a%a5%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e6%96%b0%e5%b1%80%e9%9d%a2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8d85\u8d8a CAPE \u65e7\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0cP-CAPE \u5f00\u521b\u80a1\u5e02\u56de\u62a5\u9884\u6d4b\u65b0\u5c40\u9762"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8001\u4f59\u635e\u9c7c<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color\">\u539f\u521b\u4e0d\u6613\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf7\u6807\u660e\u51fa\u5904\u53ca\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u3002<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/image11.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1567\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<pre class=\"wp-block-verse\"><strong>\u5199\u5728\u524d\u9762\u7684\u8bdd\uff1a<\/strong>\u672c\u6587\u4e3b\u8981\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7684\u662f\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\uff08CAPE\uff09\u53ca\u5176\u5012\u6570 CAEY \u5e38\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u80a1\u5e02\u957f\u671f\u56de\u62a5\uff0c\u4f46\u539f\u59cb CAPE \u6709\u5c40\u9650\uff0c\u672a\u5145\u5206\u8003\u8651\u672a\u5206\u914d\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u672a\u5206\u914d\u6536\u76ca\u53ef\u518d\u6295\u8d44\u6216\u56de\u8d2d\u80a1\u7968\u5f71\u54cd\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u5e94\u8c03\u6574\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u4e3a P-CAE\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u80a1\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u7387\u548c\u7559\u5b58\u6536\u76ca\u5bf9\u957f\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/pre>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Robert Shiller \u6559\u6388\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5468\u671f\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\uff08CAPE\uff09\u4e43\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u9886\u57df\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8ba4\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u4ed6\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u4f30\u503c\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u4e0e\u63a2\u8ba8\u6b21\u6570\u6700\u591a\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6545\u800c\uff0c\u4f17\u591a\u8bba\u6587\u5c1d\u8bd5\u5bf9 CAPE \u65b9\u6cd5\u4e88\u4ee5\u6539\u8fdb\u4e0e\u62d3\u5c55\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e1d\u6beb\u4e0d\u4ee4\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u610f\u5916\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0cJames White \u548c Victor Haghani \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8bba\u6587\u805a\u7126\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u6539\u826f\u7248\u7684\u5468\u671f\u8c03\u6574\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\uff0c\u5373 P-CAPE\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u5728\u4e8e\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u80a1\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u7387\u878d\u5165\u4f20\u7edf\u7684 CAPE \u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u5bf9\u80a1\u5e02\u957f\u671f\u9884\u671f\u5b9e\u9645\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f20\u7edf\u7684 CAPE \u6bd4\u7387\u91c7\u7528\u8fc7\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u5386\u7ecf\u901a\u80c0\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u5e73\u7f13\u5546\u4e1a\u5468\u671f\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u4e3a\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u4ef7\u503c\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\u3002CAPE \u7684\u5012\u6570\uff0c\u5373\u5468\u671f\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08CAEY\uff09\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u671f\u7684\u5b9e\u8d28\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f20\u7edf CAPE \u7684\u4e00\u5904\u7f3a\u9677\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u5176\u5e76\u672a\u5c06\u672a\u5206\u914d\u4e3a\u80a1\u606f\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u90e8\u5206\u7eb3\u5165\u8003\u91cf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7559\u5b58\u6536\u76ca\u6216\u8bb8\u4f1a\u88ab\u518d\u5ea6\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u4f01\u4e1a\u6216\u8005\u7528\u4e8e\u80a1\u7968\u56de\u8d2d\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u63a8\u52a8\u672a\u6765\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u957f\u671f\u56de\u62a5\u65f6\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P-CAPE \u7b56\u7565\u901a\u8fc7\u659f\u914c\u80a1\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u7387\u6765\u5bf9\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5b83\u628a\u672a\u5206\u914d\u4e3a\u80a1\u606f\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u6309\u7167\u5f53\u524d CAEY \u7684\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e88\u4ee5\u8d34\u73b0\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u652f\u4ed8\u8c03\u6574\u548c\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u76c8\u5229\uff08P-CAE\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u76c8\u5229\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u4ece\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u4e3a\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u80a1\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u7387\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd0\u7528 P-CAE \u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08P-CAEY\uff09\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u4e3a\u7cbe\u786e\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9884\u671f\u5b9e\u8d28\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u7684\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e0e CAEY \u76f8\u6bd4\uff0cP-CAEY \u5728\u9610\u91ca 10 \u5e74\u671f\u9884\u671f\u5b9e\u8d28\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5177\u5907\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6807\u9898\uff1aP-CAPE\u7b80\u4ecb\uff1a\u7eb3\u5165\u80a1\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u7387\u53ef\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6700\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u62a5\u4f30\u8ba1\u5668<br>\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4874559\">https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4874559<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>P-CAE\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1. \u8ba1\u7b97\u80a1\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u7387\uff0c\u5373\u652f\u4ed8\u7ed9\u80a1\u4e1c\u7684\u80a1\u606f\u4e0e\u516c\u53f8\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2. \u5047\u8bbe\u672a\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u80a1\u606f\u4ee5\u5f53\u524d\u7684CAEY\u589e\u957f\u7387\u518d\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u7559\u5b58\u6536\u76ca\u5bf9\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3. \u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u589e\u957f\u7eb3\u5165\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f97\u5230P-CAE\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f7f\u7528P-CAE\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u6536\u76ca\u7387\uff08P-CAEY\uff09\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u957f\u671f\u9884\u671f\u5b9e\u9645\u56de\u62a5\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u901a\u80c0\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u8fd8\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u7559\u5b58\u6536\u76ca\u5bf9\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u90a3\u4e9b\u8ba4\u540cShiller\u548cCampbell\u7684CAPE\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0cP-CAE\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6839\u636e\u80a1\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u7387\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u8003\u8651\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f53\u80a1\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e100%\u4e14CAEY\u4e3a\u6b63\u65f6\uff0cP-CAE\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u9ad8\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5468\u671f\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u53ea\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u901a\u80c0\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8c03\u6574\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u5730\u8bc4\u4f30\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u957f\u671f\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/640-1-4-766x1024.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1564\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/640-2-4-1024x729.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1565\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.laoyulaoyu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/640-3-4-1024x228.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1566\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u5f53\u600e\u6837\u53bb\u5224\u5b9a\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u8fd9\u79cd\u6539\u8fdb\u662f\u5426\u8db3\u591f\u663e\u8457\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u503c\u5f97\u88ab\u91c7\u7528\uff1f\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u5177\u6709\u5408\u7406\u6027\uff1f\u53bb\u505a\u4e00\u4e9b\u5177\u5907\u66f4\u575a\u5b9e\u903b\u8f91\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u9887\u5177\u4ef7\u503c\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u79cd\u8c03\u6574\u901a\u8fc7\u4e86\u8fd9\u7b2c\u4e00\u9053\u8003\u9a8c\u3002\u5728\u5ba1\u89c6\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u663e\u5f97\u5c24\u4e3a\u5173\u952e\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adf\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u5145\u8db3\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u6765\u5f97\u51fa\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7559\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u5bf9 10 \u5e74\u671f\u80a1\u5e02\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u89c2\u5bdf\u65f6\uff0c140 \u5e74\u7684\u6570\u636e\u5e76\u4e0d\u7b97\u591a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u6536\u76ca\u4e0e\u56de\u62a5\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u52a0\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\u8be5\u8868\u683c\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u6c47\u603b\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6491\u4e86\u5982\u4e0b\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5373\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u5efa\u8bae\u7684 P-CAE \u6307\u6807\u6bd4\u672a\u8fdb\u884c\u652f\u51fa\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u6307\u6807\u66f4\u4e3a\u6709\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8bf7\u4e88\u4ee5\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u6807\u51c6\u7684 Shiller \u548c Campbell \u6307\u6807\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f 13% \u4ee5\u53ca 15% \u7684\u672a\u6765\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u9884\u6599\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u672a\u5c06\u516c\u53f8\u4fdd\u7559\u6536\u76ca\u6216\u8005\u56de\u8d2d\u80a1\u7968\u7eb3\u5165\u8003\u8651\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u7f3a\u53e3\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e 1890 \u5e74\u81f3 2024 \u5e74\u6837\u672c\u671f\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u80a1\u606f\u652f\u4ed8\u7387\u662f\u76f8\u7b26\u7684\u3002P-CAEY \u9610\u91ca\u4e86\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u5b9e\u9645\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\u4e2d\u90fd\u5728\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u5148\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u5448\u73b0\u4e86 P-CAEY \u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u9645\u80a1\u5e02\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u6df1\u77e5\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5c06 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